Keeler: Broncos, easily. I mean, yeah, the Buffs are as one-dimensional as a Pauly Shore flick, but we’re too far down the stream to change horses now. The worst-kept secret in BoCo is that Shedeur Sanders — not Pat Shurmur, not Sean Lewis — makes the big calls on offense. The takeaway from Nebraska postgame? There’s no one No. 2 trusts more with the ball in his hands than himself. While that might work for CU in the D-optional, pass-happy Big 12, Bo Nix is in a different league. Literally. Bo needs more help, man. A lot of help. From everywhere. Now.

Renck: For me the answer is simple: the Broncos. Why? They are built to run. They guaranteed $126 million in contracts to right tackle Mike McGlinchey, left guard Ben Powers and right guard Quinn Meinerz to win at the line of scrimmage, to create, as center Luke Wattenberg called it, “a physical identity.” Yet Nix threw the ball 44 times in the opener. Worse, he was the Broncos’ most dynamic runner. Javonte Williams averaged 3.2 yards per carry over the final 10 games last season and posted 2.9 yards a pop vs. Seattle. He was more explosive in training camp. But is he better? Is he a starter? The eye test — even in a blink — says Audric Estime could be the team’s most dynamic back. Coach Sean Payton reiterated Monday he “didn’t do a good enough job” but explained the run issues involve scheme, better technique by linemen and improved vision from running backs.

Keeler: The downside of “going young”? Cutting sure things. Cutting veteran sure things, especially. Samaje Perine has lost a step, but at least those steps are usually chugging forward. Think Young Bo could’ve used the sure-handed Tim Patrick to keep the chains moving? It’s Sean’s show. Sean’s locker room. But Sean’s offenses in recent years have looked a heck of a lot better when they’re using the run to set up the pass, and not vice versa. Stat to note: Since 2020, Sean Payton teams are 18-5, and 4-2 with the Broncos, when picking up 120 rush yards or more, and 11-16 when it’s 119 or fewer. If Estime turns this engine over and holds the fort as a pass protector, that might be your guy.

Renck: CU is abysmal on the ground, with its running backs collecting 75 yards on 25 carries through two games. Stop the madness with Charlie Offerdahl. He can pick up a blitz. OK. Cool. Make him the backup and expand his role on special teams. Dallan Hayden needs more reps. Feed him and see if it puts the offensive line in rhythm. The Broncos’ situation is more alarming because they want to run. The Buffs do not. They say they do. But they don’t. And until they value balance over Sanders’ passing stats, nothing will change.

Keeler: I’ve been stomping for Hayden for two weeks now, to no avail. Meanwhile, Dylan Edwards is averaging 9.5 yards per touch at K-State, where he’s already scored three times in two games for the Fighting EMAWs. The Buffs sure would love that kind of explosion out of the backfield right about now. And young Bo could use it even more.

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None of this was particularly surprising given the time and place. Rookie quarterbacks are now 4-15 at Lumen Field. And in his debut, Nix looked spooked and was too often off target before providing hope with a nervy fourth-quarter drive that made the final score more palatable.

It was unsettling but predictable and understandable.

What was not was Sean Payton’s performance. As long as Payton works in Denver, he will be shadow-boxing his championship past. It will be used to judge him.

And Sunday Payton wasn’t good enough, making too many head-scratching decisions than acceptable for someone with his pedigree.

His resume hints of an offensive genius, and the Broncos delivered seven three-and-out drives. They were 5 for 18 on third down. They scored nine points on three red zone trips.

Sunday represented Payton’s 276th game as a head coach. It was the first for Seattle’s Mike Macdonald.

So why were the Seahawks more efficient, more opportunistic and more disciplined? Why were they able to make halftime adjustments, something Payton explained as overrated last season? How did Seattle offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb figure out between bites of fruit and sips of Gatorade to feed the ball to running back Kenneth Walker III?

This is the clarity the Broncos require from Payton. He needed to win the chessboard. He has to be held to a higher standard. On a team speckled with young players and one superstar (cornerback Pat Surtain II), the boss is the most accomplished and highest-paid employee. He cannot have a bad day.

There were plenty of fingerprints on this loss, but Payton deserves the most blame.

“I have to be better,” Payton admitted.

Why?

“Any time you have a plan like that and you don’t execute, you don’t run the ball as well, then you’ve got to look at why,” said Payton, whose record fell to 28-12 against rookie head coaches. “That’s why.”

The game gave off CU-Nebraska vibes with the offensive imbalance. With the Buffs it is expected because there is no evidence that coach Deion Sanders values winning over his son’s statistics.

Payton boasts 169 NFL victories and a Super Bowl ring. He knows better. Nix dropped back 44 times, threw 42 times and was sacked twice. The Broncos ran 25 times for 99 yards. That, though, is deceiving. Nix scrambled five times for 35 yards. So everyone else produced 60 yards on 24 carries.

That is 2.5 yards per carry for those who hate math. It eloquently explains why Nix averaged 3.29 yards per passing attempt. And he got hot late to get there. Deep into the second half, he threatened to break Ben Roethlisberger’s record of 2.68.

When the entire game plan requires protecting Nix, putting him in position to succeed, the Broncos not only could not run but abandoned it. Broncos players not named Nix ran the ball seven times in the second half. Seven!

We are not in the meetings or film sessions. But in the NFL, report cards are based on Sunday’s public exam, and this one is an F.

“There’s always that balance. But it’s hard to keep doing it. We are going to look at the tape, and us, as coaches, have to evaluate the run plan and why it wasn’t effective,” Payton said. “It’s going to be hard to play quarterback period if that’s all we can do running the ball.”

Payton struck the right tone about Nix. He defended him, which was appropriate but mildly surprising given his performance. He fell on his sword, but not before swinging it a few times at the offensive line and skill players.

“Bo gave us a chance. Our protection was average at best. … Our rushing yards were not nearly good enough,” Payton said. “At one point in the game, I went to the bench and talked to the receivers and said, ‘Let’s go. Let’s help this guy.’”

Nix is the future. He needs props, not drops. The problem with this strategy is one I broached in the spring: Who are the playmakers? Courtland Sutton caught four passes on 12 targets. Nix finished 2 of 12 on passes over 10 yards with two interceptions. Payton must fight the gravitational pull to throw the ball when receivers don’t get consistent separation, as was the case Sunday.

Payton has never relied on a rookie quarterback, beyond starting Ian Book once because of COVID in 2021.

As much as we talk about Nix’s development, Payton has to evolve with him. He has to design a better ground attack. Heck, maybe put Nix under center more, giving the running back more options than the half field created by shotgun handoffs. As center Luke Wattenberg said, “We definitely have to be better on first and second down. We have to run the ball, for sure. That’s gotta be our identity.”

Perhaps the Broncos just aren’t good enough. That’s not yet clear. But one thing is certain: Payton can’t call 44 passes and expect to receive anything but a failing grade.

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Live updates

FINAL | Seahawks 26, Broncos 20

It was a rough debut for Bo Nix as the Broncos rookie quarterback threw two interceptions in a 26-20 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday.

Nix, however, did have one highlight late in the fourth quarter when he scrambled for a 4-yard score to earn his first NFL touchdown.

More Broncos coverage

• PHOTOS: Denver Broncos drop season opener to Seattle Seahawks 26-20 in week 1 of the NFL season.
• Broncos LT Garett Bolles “going to be fine” after missing final two drives with ankle injury, HC Sean Payton says.
• Bo Nix Watch: Poor decisions stall rookie quarterback’s Broncos debut.
• Broncos Four Downs: Did Seahawks figure out Vance Joseph’s defense in the second half?
• Broncos report card: Bo Nix’s debut, Sean Payton’s offensive plan get failing grades in Week 1 loss.
• WATCH: Broncos rookie Bo Nix scores 1st NFL touchdown, a 4-yard scramble

Fourth-quarter updates

A second chance (5:18 p.m.): Baron Browning jumps offside on third down. We’re going to do this thing again. — Schubert

Third and a chance (5:16 p.m.): It’s going to be third-and-long here. Interested to see whether Seattle elects to pass here. — Schubert

Stop needed (5:13 p.m.): Two timeouts and the two-minute warning to work with for the Broncos’ defense. Need a three-and-out. — Gabriel

Bo Nix, touchdown (5:11 p.m.): Bo Nix’s first TD comes on the ground. A 4-yard scramble for the score. Gives Broncos a few breaths of life. They trail 26-20 with 2:09 left. — Renck

Bo Nix scores his first NFL TD!

: #DENvsSEA on CBS/Paramount+
: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/R9BWx51L53

— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024

Big gain (5:07 p.m.): Using his legs, Bo Nix scrambled for a 23-yard gain. On the day, he has four carries for 31 yards, the most on the team. — Nguyen

Another pick for Nix (5:01 p.m.): Bo Nix got into a little rhythm then throws into triple coverage for his second pick. Rookie quarterbacks will fall to 4-15 at Lumen Field. — Renck

Let’s call this a learning experience for Bo Nix. Two picks on the day, and honestly, it should probably be many more.

A reminder, he threw three INTs all of last season at Oregon. — Schubert

Tight-end connection (5 p.m.): Two straight possessions feature a Broncos tight end short of the sticks on third down. Sound familiar? — Schubert

Touchdown, Seattle (4:41 p.m.): A 30-yard catch-and-run touchdown by Zach Charbonnet gives Seattle a bigger lead. Seahawks 26, Broncos 13. — Nguyen

And that will do it. Seattle goes up 26-13. Might as well be 56-13. — Renck

Another Seahawks touchdown, this time on a wheel route, and this game appears to be all but over. Seattle leads 26-13 and the Broncos offense has shown zero signs it has the ability to answer. — Schubert

Third-quarter analysis — Seahawks 19, Broncos 13

Parker Gabriel, beat writer: A six-point lead might be enough for Seattle already. But a TD for Mike Macdonald’s team at the end of this drive early in the fourth quarter would feel like a putaway punch.

Ryan McFadden, beat writer: The Broncos are only down six points, but this game feels like its over. I can’t see this offense turning things around. Nix is overmatched and Denver’s run defense has fallen apart.

Troy Renck, sports columnist: Broncos play with no margin for error. Defense, terrific in first half, is getting gashed. And offense can’t stay on the field. Not establishing run has bit them. Nix is averaging 2.68 yards per attempt. That is all-time bad.

Matt Schubert, sports editor: If you thought the Broncos’ run defense troubles were behind them, the last 15 minutes argued otherwise. Whether that’s because they’ve spent way too much time on the field due to the offense’s ineptitude, or they have real problems is immaterial. This one is quickly slipping away.

Third-quarter updates

Third-down issues (4:35 p.m.): Sean Payton goes nuclear, wanting PI. Sutton appeared to be grabbed early in the route. Broncos fail to convert on third down. And the beat goes on. They are 4-for-15 on third down. — Renck

Can’t stop the run (4:32 p.m.): The defense that had carried the Broncos to a halftime lead has not looked good to start the second half. Seattle now has 134 yards on 21 carries. Obviously, that’s not going to get it done. — SChubert

Three more (4:30 p.m.): The Broncos dodge a bullet with DK Metcalf flagged for holding on a play that likely would’ve been a touchdown anyway. Denver keeps the Seahawks out of the end zone after that. It’s now 19-13 Seattle with 4:12 left in the third quarter. — Schubert

Huge holding call on DK Metcalf negated TD. It keeps Broncso in game. Had they gone up 23-13 this game was over given Denver’s offensive ineptitude. — Renck

Penalty woes (4:25 p.m.): Another pass interference flag on the Broncos. Denver now has seven penalties for 55 yards and the Seahawks are driving. If Seattle goes up by two scores, this one might be out of reach. — Schubert

Injury update (4:21 p.m.): Trainer is looking at and re-taping RB Audric Estime’s right ankle on the Broncos’ bench. — Gabriel

Fumbled, lost (4:20 p.m.): Jaleel McLaughlin coughs it up on third-and-long near midfield with the Broncos trying to play field position, and this thing has a chance to go from bad to worse. — Schubert

Broncos start to run well and abandon it. Then McLaughlin fumbles on short reception. Seahawks in business at the Broncos’ 47-yard line. Per my man Parker, Broncos have 29 drop backs and 19 rushes.. That’s not going to work. Not at all. — Renck

Touchdown, Seattle (4:12 p.m.): Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III slipped past the Broncos defense en route to a 23-yard touchdown. Seahawks 16, Broncos 13. — Nguyen

It appears the Broncos run defense from 2023 emerged from the halftime locker room. Seattle just shoved the ball down their throats with Kenneth Walker III.

The last run goes for a touchdown — easy enough that the Michigan State product could do an exaggerated dive into the end zone. Looks like Bo Nix is going to have to make some plays to win this one. — Schubert

Kenneth Walker 23-yard TD run… Moss had chance at tackle but got off block late and missed tackle. Walker scores and with the PAT. Seahawks lead 16-13 with 10:44 left. It was six plays, 61 yards, 2:47 off the clock. Offense has to do something. Anything. Not winning this games with safeties and field goals. — Renck

Not a good time for the Broncos’ defense to have a leaky moment. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but not much margin for error with the way the Denver offense is playing. — Gabriel

Three-and-out (4:05 p.m.): Loss of yardage on a first down sweep. Second-down pass bounced into the turf. Then a delay of game penalty. Safe to say the Broncos didn’t figure a whole lot of things out during the halftime break.

Three-and-out as the Broncos do nothing but march backward to start the second half. This game is going to be on the defense. The good news: They’ve been up to the task so far. — Schubert

Halftime analysis — Broncos 13, Seahawks 9

Parker Gabriel, beat writer: This has been one of the stranger halves of football I’ve seen. Somehow seems fitting for this team. But for as rough as the operation was offensively for Denver, they’ve got the lead, start the second half with the ball and the defense has been humming.

Maybe, just maybe, a heavy dose of the run game would be a good play to start the half.

Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Denver’s defense has been the highlight of the game. The Broncos have recorded two safeties and an interception while they have done well at pressuring Geno Smith. Bo Nix looked nervous throughout the first half as the majority of his throws have been off target. Maybe, Nix can build off his completion to Josh Reynolds that set up the field goal in the closing seconds of the quarter.

Troy Renck, sports columnist: Hard to believe Nix can place worse than he did in first half and Broncos lead 13-9. They have run a lot of plays, but the idea is never to throw this much on road with a rookie. Rookies are 4-14 in Lumen Field. Gotta run ball better. But the reality is they are leading because of Vance Joseph’s hair on fire defense. Can the offense do enough in second half to pull off the upset?

Matt Schubert, sports editor: Bo Nix has been bad. And the Broncos are still ahead 13-9 at the break. All things considered, that’s not a bad place to be starting a rookie quarterback on the road in Week 1. Thank Jonathon Cooper and the Broncos defensive front, which has been absolutely lights out.

Second-quarter updates

Three more (3:46 p.m.): Broncos’ Wil Lutz with the 45-yard field goal give give the Broncos a 13-9 lead with two seconds to go. — Nguyen

Broncos get 45-yard FG from Lutz to increase lead to 13-9. Nix throw to Reynolds set it up. Nix is 12-for-22 for 67 yards. Maybe that last 25-yard strike will shake him into rhythm. Been late and behind on throws all day. But #Broncos lead 13-9 at half because of 3 FGs and 2 safeties. First time had two safeties in a game since 1982. — Renck

Make-up play (3:45 p.m.): After looking like he dropped a pass from Bo Nix, Josh Reynolds a 25-yard pass from Nix to give Denver the first down. — Nguyen

Just off target (3:45 p.m.): Everything over the middle from Bo Nix so far has been behind the receiver. Again there to Reynolds. — Gabriel

Rookie jitters (3:42 p.m.): Throughout that defensive possession for the Broncos, Jarrett Stidham was talking with Nix on the bench. Looked like he was trying to impart on Nix to settle down. Davis Webb there, too. — Gabriel

No safety (3:41 p.m.): If you were hoping for a third safety on third-and-long at the Seahawks 1, you will come away disappointed. Still, the Broncos have a shot at more points if they can get this punt near midfield. — Schubert

Slow getting up (3:41 p.m.): Jonathon Cooper jogging off slowly after last play. Was favoring his right leg. But appears OK. — Renck

Sacked (3:38 p.m.): Jonathon Cooper with his second sack of the game. He was serious when he said he wanted 10 or more sacks this season. — McFadden

Cooper on pace for 34 sacks this year. #WayTooEarlyStats — Nguyen

Rough debut (3:37 p.m.): And just like that, Nix threw the ball into a defender’s chest and nearly had his second interception of the game. — McFadden

Well, the Bo Nix “almost picked” counter is now at 4 after another sloppy throw. — Schubert

Nix is playing awful. Should have 3 or 4 picks. But defense playing with hair on fire. Compensating for the offensive ineptitude, save for Geno Smith’s 34-yard run. — Renck

Momentum building? (3:34 p.m.): See if that 17-yard completion on the run from Bo Nix to Courtland Sutton settles the QB in a bit. Nice play to keep the drive moving. — Gabriel

Bo Nix with his first big play of the game, a scrambling third-down completion to Courtland Sutton. Broncos are in business. — Schubert

41 years (3:31 p.m.): Last time Broncos had two safeties in a game was Jan. 2, 1983. They had safeties by Boyd and Chavous. They lost 13-11 to Seattle in Kingdome. — Renck

This might be weirdest half of football I’ve covered in my life. — McFadden

10 the hard way (3:29 p.m.): Broncos have 10 points on two FGs — set up by an INT and a muffed punt — and two safeties. A resplendent start for Vance Joseph’s defense. — Gabriel

The safety dance (3:27 p.m.): Make that two safeties for Denver today. Broncos 10, Seahawks 9. — Nguyen

Yes, ANOTHER, safety. Zach Allen busts through the line and drops the Seattle running back right at the goal line. What a half for the defensive line. — Schubert

No worries? (3:27 p.m.): Not sure whether to be encouraged that the Broncos are still in this game despite the QB looking this shaky, or discouraged that they aren’t winning with the defense looking (mostly) this good. — Schubert

Perfection (3:26 p.m.): Riley Dixon with the perfect pitching wedge punt. Pins Seattle at 1-yard line. #Broncos best offense is their defense. Time for another safety, it appears. — Renck

The play that set up the safety

: CBS
pic.twitter.com/wpHYC3DODZ

— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) September 8, 2024

Bo struggles (3:24 p.m.): Bo Nix could easily have four picks right now. Sean Payton desperately needs his run game to show up, because the rookie quarterback is struggling. — Schubert

Bo Nix looks spooked every time he drops back. — McFadden

We’ve seen some bouts of inaccuracy from Bo Nix in camp, especially over the middle, but not by these kind of margins.

Rough outing so far for the Broncos rookie QB. — Gabriel

Touchdown, Seahawks (3:18 p.m.): Geno Smith with nifty run and shoulder fake to race 34 yards for score. Seattle leads 9-8 as crowd breaks into “Geno!!!” Two-point conversion fails. — Renck

As well as this Broncos defense has played, they’re down by one in the second quarter.

P.J. Locke has got to make that tackle on Geno Smith in the open field. — Schubert

Rhythm in Seattle (3:17 p.m.): Geno Smith finding a little rhythm now. Metcalf over the middle and back-shouder to Lockett against Moss. Seahawks are moving. — Gabriel

Gnarly tackle (3:17 p.m.): Baron Browning goes Simone Biles on the tackle, flipping upside down to get assist on a tackle. That is a big man going head over heels. — Renck

Baron Browning just tried to do a Canadian Destroyer to Kenneth Walker III. — Nguyen

Three more (3:10 p.m.): Despite starting on Seattle’s 9-yard line, Denver couldn’t move the ball in the red zone. A 30-yard field goal gives the Broncos an 8-3 lead. — Nguyen

More conservative play-calling from Sean Payton. Two straight runs to start this drive inside the Seattle 15 gain only a couple of yards. And then third down falls incomplete after Bo Nix tries to squeeze a ball into Courtland Sutton in double coverage. — Schubert

Nix was on time and on target in preseason. Pressure is different in regular season. Nix feeling heat … mechanics are off. He has been late on multiple throws. Last pass was so bad it didn’t get picked off. Caught a break.

Payton is trying to protect Nix with conservative play calling. But playing this safe is playing to lose. Going to have to have somebody make a play in red zone because, and you all know, field goals lose road games. — Renck

Muffed punt (3:06 p.m.): Seattle muffs the punt. Denver gets the ball on the Seattle 9. — Nguyen

And now we’ve got a muffed punt for the Seahawks. Broncos ball inside the Seattle 10-yard line, but a false start moves them back right off the bat. Seattle is serving this game on a platter. Can Denver take it? — Schubert

Safety (3:02 p.m.): A holding call on Seattle from their own 1-yard line gives the Broncos a safety. Broncos 5, Seahawks 3. — Nguyen

The Broncos defensive line has been the star of the game so far. D.J. Jones’ push forces a hold in the end zone and a safety. What a start for Vance Joseph’s crew. — Schubert

Lesson learned (2:58 p.m.): Bo Nix gets his first rookie lesson. Don’t do that. — Schubert

Bo Nix makes first mistake … drifted in pocket … threw off back foot. Ball floated into double coverage and was easily picked. Sutton had no chance. If going to make that throw, have to step up and drive ball. Nix also got hit on play. But it was a bad decision. No way around it. — Renck

Sean Payton hated the way the Broncos played in the red zone last year — and was particularly frustrated with Russell Wilson’s production in that department. Two first-half trips so far today: A field goal and a Bo Nix INT. — Gabriel

First-quarter analysis — Broncos 3, Seahawks 3

Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Dink, dunk, dink, dunk.

Bo Nix is 6/9 for 21 yards. Broncos have just two first downs. Vance Joseph’s defense has been really good so far.

Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Denver’s defense has looked solid. The Broncos held Seattle to 38 total yards and 0 for 3 on third down. Broncos have done well from a pass rush standpoint, as Bonitto, Allen, Cooper and Jones were able to get to Smith.

Troy Renck, sports columnist: Broncos looking to make this a rockfight. Defense playing with aggression and purpose. Offense has been conservative with no deep strikes. Going to have to hit one to win this game.

Matt Schubert, sports editor: The defense is doing what it needs to give Bo Nix a shot in his first NFL start. Javonte Williams has shown some early burst. and Nix has been fine. More Devaughn Vele. Less Lil’Jordan Humphrey, please.

First-quarter updates

Aired out (2:51 p.m.): OK, so maybe there’s a reason why Bo’s been so conservative. His first deep pass SAILS and is nearly picked. — Schubert

Challenge good (2:49 p.m.): Sean Payton rightfully challenges that spot and wins. We’ve got a drive going for Denver. — Schubert

Bo’s legs (2:47 p.m.): Pretty sure Bo Nix hasn’t throw a pass that’s traveled farther than 8 yards downfield so far today. That being said, that spot was absolutely horrific. Nix clearly got a first down on that scramble and dove forward. — Schubert

Tied up (2:42 p.m.): A seven-play, 46-yard Seattle drive leads to FG.. Game tied at 3. Bonitto roughing the passer wasn’t egregious, but it cost the Broncos 3 points. — Renck

Broncos get the Seahawks off the field with a defensive back blitz. Plenty of pressure from the pass rush early on. Very encouraging sign. — Schubert

Joseph’s showing all kinds of stuff early. Got Bonitto as a free-runner on that third down. Impressive stuff from the defense overall and the front in particular.

Also an encouraging start from Riley Moss. He’s feisty and not afraid to play in the run game. — Gabriel

Shadow (2:40 p.m.): Pat Surtain II’s been traveling with DK Metcalf so far. Good-on-good matchup there. — Gabriel

A first (2:35 p.m.): Alex Singleton’s interception was his first in a Broncos uniform and first since Dec. 26, 2021 when he played for Philadelphia. — Gabriel

Dropped (2:33 p.m.): Lil’Jordan Humphrey drops Nix’s pass attempt on third down, forcing the Broncos to punt. The ball was placed perfectly in Humphrey’s hands but he couldn’t secure the grab. — McFadden

Defensive numbers (2:31 p.m.): After three possessions, the Broncos have one sack, one turnover, three quarterback hits and two pass deflections.

Oh, and two tackles for a loss. — Schubert

Pass-rush strong early (2:29 p.m.): Zach Allen loves playing with JFM. Teams can’t pay so much attention to him and he took advantage, there, pressuring Geno Smith on third-and-long. — Gabriel

The Broncos pass rush has shown up in a big way early on. — Schubert

Defense rolling (2:27 p.m.): Nik Bonitto rocking his new number 15 gets the tackle. And there’s a hold on the play. Seahawks offense finding tough sledding. Riley Moss gets tackle for loss. Looked like he was bulldogging in rodeo arena. — Renck

Defensive switch (2:25 p.m.): Devon Key in the game at safety with Locke for the second series.

Sean Payton indicated Friday that Brandon Jones might be on something of a limited workload given he missed most of camp with a hamstring injury. — Gabriel

Three-and-out (2:22 p.m.): Three pass attempts, three completions for Bo Nix on his second drive. Unfortunately the Broncos only gained 5 yards. A punt back to Seattle. — Nguyen

Through two series, Bo Nix is 3/4 for 5 yards and the Broncos have gone three-and-out twice. Long way to go, obviously, but playing in the regular season is a lot different than the preseason. — Gabriel

For historians: On first and 10 from 35, Bo Nix completed first pass to Jaleel McLaughlin on rollout right for two yards. He followed with a short pass that went for minus-1 yard. But he already has more completions than John Elway had in his opening debut in 1983. Elway went 1-for-8 and was benched. But Broncos won. — Renck

Sean Payton and Co. aren’t doing a lot to dispel the notion that Bo Nix doesn’t throw the ball down the field. We’re two possessions in and nothing past the sticks. — Schubert

Money well earned (2:18 p.m.): That is why you pay Pat Surtain II. First time Seahawks go to D.K. Metcalf, Surtain knocks it away. Looks like Surtain is following top receiver today. Will see if that holds. — Renck

This just in: Pat Surtain II is good. — Gabriel

Pat Surtain II once again shows why you pay him the big bucks. — McFadden

Encourage defense (2:15 p.m.): Looking forward to seeing what Denver’s defense does after forcing a turnover to start the game. The Broncos needed to improve on their pass rush. Jones and Cooper getting to the quarterback on back-to-back plays is a encouraging sign. — McFadden

CU sighting (2:14 p.m.): Former CU receiver Laviska Shenault took that kick return for the Seahawks. Seattle will start on the 27-yard line. — Nguyen

Field goal (2:11 p.m.): Broncos take a 3-0 lead after Wil Lutz’s 35-yard field goal attempt. Broncos 3, Seahawks 0. — McFadden

Javonte Williams slips on second play and Bo Nix incompletion brings out FG team.. Thought we were going to see tush push with Riley Dixon, but was used only to try and draw Seattle offsides. Didn’t work. Lutz with short FG. #Broncos lead 3-0 w 12:36 remaining in half. Really needed to steal 7 there. But a lead is a lead. — Renck

Broncos go three-and-out after a 9-yard run on first down.

Nix *maybe* could have tried to pick up third-and-2 with his legs, but instead Denver settles for a FG.

Red zone always critical and the first trip there this fall is an unsatisfying one. — Gabriel

And picked (2:08 p.m.): More pressure from the Broncos’ front line and he throws a dart straight into Alex Singleton’s hands. Broncos ball. — Nguyen

START US OFF, @alexsingleton49!

: CBS pic.twitter.com/8pdkaMf01S

— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) September 8, 2024

Jonathon Cooper with sack on first play. On second play, Alex Singleton with interception as DJ Jones wrapped up Smith. Huge start for Denver. — Renck

Sacked (2:07 p.m.): Jonathon Cooper records the first sack of the season for Denver. A 7-yard loss for Seattle. — Nguyen

Coin toss (2:03 p.m.): Broncos have all six captains at midfield for the coin toss.

Pat Surtain calls tails and it is. Denver defers to the second half. — Gabriel

It’s about that time. Anthem singer had false start. Started before PA was done talking. And pretty sure there will be an illegal formation called as well.

Broncos win toss and will kick. Will see new-look defense first. The Broncos beefed up their DLine to improve their run defense. But there are questions in secondary. This will be debut of foursome Brandon Jones, P.J. Locke, Riley Moss and Pat Surtain II. — Renck

Pre-game updates

Weather (1:52 p.m.): 73 degrees, mostly cloudy, 7 mph wind and 72% humidity as we approach kickoff. Peak PNW. — Gabriel

Countdown (1:19 p.m.): Broncos are on the field for warmups with 47 minutes on the clock before kickoff. Sean Payton’s on the sideline chatting with owners Carrie Walton Penner and Greg Penner. — Gabriel

Broncos inactives (12:36 p.m.): TE Lucas Krull, WR Troy Franklin, DL Eyioma Uwazurike, RB Blake Watson, CB Kris Abrams-Draine and OL Frank Crum. Zach Wilson is listed as the emergency third quarterback. — McFadden

Only surprise on the inactives from my point of view is maybe Kris Abrams-Draine. He was a special teams regular in camp. But Levi Wallace is healthy after missing a big chunk of camp and slots in as the next CB up behind Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss. — Gabriel

Good morning from the Pacific Northwest (12:18 p.m.): It’s hazy but dry here in Seattle. Bo Nix was out on the field with Jarrett Stidham a little more than two hours before kickoff. Intriguing opener here both considering Nix is making his regular-season debut and that the Seahawks feature a new head coach and new coordinators on both sides of the ball. — Gabriel

Scouting report (11 a.m.): Check out how the Broncos match up with the Seahawks in Ryan McFadden’s scouting report.

Game predictions

Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Seahawks 17, Broncos 16

The Broncos have lost their last two season openers by this score, including one at Lumen Field. So why not another? OK, that’s a bit tongue-in-cheek, but this has the feel of a feel-out game. Denver is trying to learn what it has in Bo Nix, and Seattle is going out under head coach Mike Macdonald for the first time. The Broncos cover, but start 0-1 for a fifth time in six years.

Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Seahawks 21, Broncos 20

History will not be on Bo Nix’s side on Sunday. Rookie quarterbacks are 0-7-1 in Week 1 in the last five seasons. Nix will put up modest numbers in his debut but it won’t be enough to beat the Seahawks in a hostile environment. Mike Macdonald earns his first win as a head coach but Denver will leave Seattle optimistic about Nix’s ability as a starter.

Troy Renck, columnist: Seahawks 23, Broncos 20

The Broncos have been energized by young players and rookie quarterback Bo Nix. There is every reason to believe they will use their underdog status to overachieve this season. It just won’t be in the opener at Seattle. Too many numbers suggest that even if Nix plays well, the Broncos will lose.

Sean Keeler, columnist: Seahawks 23, Broncos 20

Welcome to the Big Show, Bo Nix! For all the chatter about Seattle tailback Kenneth Walker III vs. the Broncos’ run defense, that’s not what nags you. What nags you is what happens when Geno Smith realizes he’s got DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett or Smith-Njigba isolated 1-on-1 against Riley Moss. Or just starts looking for wherever Moss happens to be and decides he’ll take his chances. If the Broncos hold up their end at CB2, they can hang. But that’s a massive, Godzilla-sized “if.” Especially when you can’t hear yourself think.

Broncos-Seahawks NFL Week 1: Must-reads

Broncos’ primary early-season task: Find way to start faster than last year’s 1-5 disaster

Sean Payton went deep into his bag of tricks last year to try to jumpstart his first Broncos team in Week 1.

Denver attempted a surprise onside kick to open the 2023 season against Las Vegas and came within about a foot of success, but Tremon Smith touched the ball a shade before it traveled 10 yards. The surprise onside, of course, is no longer available to NFL teams with the new dynamic kickoff rule in place. Last year’s gambit cost the Broncos valuable field position in a game they ultimately lost by one point.

Some way, somehow, though, Payton’s team has to find a way to start faster Sunday against Seattle and early in the season, Parker Gabriel reports.

Broncos Journal: After facing uncertainty on cutdown day, undrafted rookies Blake Watson, Frank Crum hope for prosperous future in Denver

Broncos running back Blake Watson tried his best to treat Aug. 27 as a regular day.

Denver was in the process of trimming its roster down to 53 players, and Watson spent half the day at the training facility before returning to his hotel room, where his mind began to wander. As an undrafted rookie out of Memphis, the odds were already stacked against Watson when he arrived in Denver in the spring.

Now that the moment of truth had arrived, he asked himself if there was more he could have done to strengthen his case for a roster spot. Even though head coach Sean Payton made it seem like Watson had a future in Denver, nothing was certain until the clock struck 2 p.m., Ryan McFadden reports.

Renck: Can Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix find instant success in Seattle? The numbers say no.

Stats vs. Trust. One of these variables will determine whether Bo Nix wins his debut on Sunday. And the numbers don’t add up.

I love the Broncos as a surprise team this season, but don’t like them in Week 1. When coach Sean Payton named Nix the starter, it made sense. He earned it. He is ready. Teammates believe in him.

Lost in the optimism is a sobering reality: There are few places worse for him to launch his career than Seattle, Troy Renck writes.

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That is what made Friday interesting and further proof of his comfort level with his second Broncos team entering its first game of the season. He entertained questions, both broad and narrow. He cracked a smile, even showing a slice of self-deprecating humor regarding his college study habits.

Payton has found a desirable role straight out of central casting: the underdog. He’s reveling in it. He might as well be wearing Air Buds instead of Air Jordans.

“I think there’s a bit of pride in all of us in what we do and a competitive nature,” Payton said when I asked about what he likes about his team being overlooked. “I think a really good motivating factor, and not just in sports but with all of us, is the fear of failure. That’s pretty powerful. I think — and I don’t want to use the word ‘I’ — we like a challenge, and that’s a challenge.”

The Broncos as cold-nosed mutts is not something we are used to around here. But this is their reality. They enter the season rebuilding, with sportsbooks predicting five wins. The Seattle Seahawks are six-point favorites on Sunday. Anyone the Broncos play will be a popular survivor pool pick.

OK, coach, time to justify that $18 million salary.

Last season Payton came across as arrogant. This year, he appears confident. You don’t think Payton believes he can outsmart Seattle’s Mike Macdonald?

Consider this: In his career, Payton boasts a 28-11 record vs. rookie coaches, counting the playoffs. He is 12-4 in the first half of the season, including victories against three Mikes — McCarthy, Smith and Zimmer.

Forgive the extrapolation, but it does not diminish the stat. Payton is at his best in games like this. When your resume boasts a Super Bowl title, when your legacy creates a compelling argument for Canton, it’s on you to deliver an A grade on the X’s and O’s. No excuses.

Macdonald features a staff with first-time coordinators. Payton has to outcoach him just as Pete Carroll won wits two years ago vs. Nathaniel Hackett. Though, in fairness, Nate was more like Ronald McDonald than Mike.

Payton offered shades of his Saints past last season. He led the Broncos to meaningful games in December, briefly flirting with a postseason berth. Russell Wilson provides a mulligan for 2023, not necessarily because of his performance, but because of the fit and the fact that Payton would have never acquired him in the first place.

This year is different. Payton has his quarterback in Bo Nix. He has a roster intertwined with youth, players who benefit most from teaching and guidance. This is what Payton enjoys most. It has shone through in his attitude and energy this summer.

“I wasn’t sure he knew my name for a while,” rookie running back Audric Estime said with a laugh. “But then he began telling me stuff about me I couldn’t believe he knew. He knows and connects with the players.”

OK, show us. It might not be reflected in the record, but Payton’s excellence must reveal itself in improvement, discipline and Nix’s progress. Payton is fond of saying when evaluating players that you don’t have to see it all the time, but you have to see it.

Well, coach, we are waiting.

Remember “The Six Million Dollar Man,” the TV series in the 1970s? For its money, the government received a rebuilt astronaut with bionic implants that gave him superhuman strength, speed and vision. For $18 million, the Broncos need a coach with uncanny instincts, impeccable clock management and a vision for the future.

Payton has shown his worth in Seattle. He is 3-3 at Lumen Field — the Marshawn Lynch Beastquake loss still stings — but has won two straight. He posted a victory with Teddy Bridgewater in 2019 and Jameis Winston in 2021. The latter game is revealing because Winston was a reclamation project. He completed 19 of 35 passes for 222 yards and a touchdown. He rushed eight times for 40 yards. He committed no turnovers. If you are wondering what a Nix line could look like in an upset, this is it.

While many of his players are not seasoned, Payton is built for this. Sometimes, the game is won during the week. Payton’s demeanor on Friday tells me his ready.

“The perfect scenario,” he said, “is to be the underdog with the better team.”

Or, in the case of Sunday, the better coach.

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Time for Russell Wilson to find an aisle on the plane to Atlanta. Get him a transfusion of wolverine blood, STAT. There is no therapy off the table, no app dismissed.

We need Wilson’s ailing calf to heal to start Sunday, leaving him in position to face the Broncos in Week 2 at Empower Field. That game without Wilson is like “Star Wars” without Darth Vader. He makes the juice worth the squeeze.

Wilson is questionable to play against the Atlanta Falcons after re-aggravating a training camp injury. His status could be determined in pregame warmups. Normally, caution would be the advised path. My concern? If Justin Fields replaces Wilson and plays well, the 35-year-old might not get his job back.

That would stink.

Other than coach Sean Payton returning to New Orleans in October, no Broncos game features more interest. Understandably, it is difficult to ask Broncos Country to pull for Wilson. He made $124 million in two seasons for 11 victories and made headlines for eye-rolling stuff like his office, birthday party and four-hour high knees workout on the plane to London.

Wilson had allies in some Broncos players, and others were indifferent or worse. Payton was not a fan, doing everything but driving the quarterback’s Uber to the airport to facilitate his exit. The drama would not be manufactured. There would be hard feelings on both sides. And fans would revel in the fervor at a raucous Mile High. Remember, there is no guarantee that the Broncos will play meaningful games in December. Can we have one in September?

We need Russell Mania. Pump those arms. Raise those knees. Get well soon, Russell.

Chief Concern: The NFL has a number of issues — though its TV ratings leave them immune to crisis — and chief among them is Kansas City. In the Chiefs’ nationally televised games, the average fan sees biased officiating in the defending champion’s favor. Thursday night, the Ravens became the poster team for illegal formations with tackle Ronnie Stanley flagged three times in the first half while Chiefs tackle Jawaan Taylor escaped punishment with a similar alignment. The Chiefs are already too good. They don’t need help from the ref show.

Contract Delay: Jamal Murray has still not agreed to a max extension. He was shooting jumpers at Ball Arena this week, so it’s too soon to say that something is amiss. But each day the Nuggets guard goes without a new contract, it is fair to wonder about his short- and long-term future.

Whiff in the Air: The Rockies remain on pace for 102 losses. They rank second in MLB with 1,393 strikeouts. And they make up for the lack of contact with a lack of speed (75 stolen bases). To not make some changes would be laughable, regardless of how much they like their young core of players.

Mail Time

I read where the Broncos are expected to activate Lil’Jordan Humphrey from the practice squad to the game. I was curious why teams place roster players on the practice squad at the beginning rather than simply placing them on the 53-man roster to begin with since they know they are going to play? 

— Scott Bristol, email

Scott, it is a function of flexibility, a strategic move. The COVID-19 pandemic was horrific, but it spawned the expanded practice squads that allow players with unlimited service time. The 16-person squad is valuable because there are veterans who will clear waivers after training camp — like Humphrey and fullback Mike Burton — and young players who will not. So, the Broncos kept a developmental project like tackle Frank Crum rather than risk losing him. It will not be a surprise if both start on Sunday at Seattle. A practice squad player can be activated three times. On the fourth activation, the player must be added to the active roster. In a nutshell, it is roster gymnastics, and the Broncos are good at it.

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One of these variables will determine whether Bo Nix wins his debut on Sunday. And the numbers don’t add up.

I love the Broncos as a surprise team this season, but don’t like them in Week 1. When coach Sean Payton named Nix the starter, it made sense. He earned it. He is ready. Teammates believe in him.

Lost in the optimism is a sobering reality: There are few places worse for him to launch his career than Seattle.

So, when watching Nix become the first Broncos rookie to start the opener since John Elway in 1983, context matters. Elway won at Pittsburgh and completed one pass. He was benched.

That will not happen to Nix. But achieving success remains a daunting task. Prepare accordingly, Broncos Country. Replace your game day gum with Tums. And don’t make every pass a referendum on the kid’s career.

I refuse to give the easy take, but this is the honest take. The math says Nix needs a slight miracle. Coaches despise history when it fails to follow their narrative. The Broncos are young and fun, not burdened by their past or humps. This team, which echoes in my ears, has never lost in Seattle.

But many teams have when starting a rookie quarterback. Since Lumen Field opened in 2002 — three stadium names ago — rookies are 4-14. Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence are among the victims. This stadium isn’t loud. It is a Led Zeppelin concert.

And it spans multiple coaches and defenses. I have never covered a game in a more hostile setting than Russell Wilson’s return to Seattle to begin the 2022 season. The decibels and vitriol were a blend of the Premier League and Dante’s Inferno.

Yes, Nix is unique because of his college experience. And the last rookie to win in Seattle — Brock Purdy — featured a similar resume. The difference? He played for San Francisco, a team the Broncos will never be confused with.

Nix’s maturity, teammates insist, will prevent the Broncos from becoming Seasick. They trust him.

“There’s almost zero panic with him. That’s how he is,” starting center Luke Wattenberg said. “He’s calm, cool, collected. It’s a great energy to have in the huddle.”

Added receiver Courtland Sutton, “He carries himself like a leader. He doesn’t look at any stage as being too big for him.”

In another venue, another city, this would compel me to predict a win. I refuse to fall for the banana in the tailpipe. Not on the road. Not in Seattle.

The Broncos haven’t posted a road victory against the Seahawks since 2002. Brian Griese was the quarterback. Peyton Manning lost here, the offensive game plan oddly blown up when tight end Virgil Green suffered a concussion in the first series. Wilson lost here, playing decent, before coach Nathaniel Hackett filmed “Clueless in Seattle,” electing to kick a potential game-winning  64-yard field goal that nobody thought was funny.

Too many numbers scream that Nix’s first start deserves patience and perspective. Don’t get this confused. I am not baking in excuses for him. He has to show he can handle the moment, has to demonstrate that preseason was not a false positive. But that is something different entirely from defeating the Seahawks in this environment.

The last NFL rookie to win a Week 1 start was Sam Darnold in 2018. The quarterbacks are 0-7-1 since. Since the merger in 1967, rookies are 16-35-1 in openers.

In other words, they are the 2024 Rockies. Would you feel confident betting on them?

Complicating matters is new Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald. With his predecessor, Pete Carroll, you knew what to expect: an opportunistic defense with an aggressive secondary that camouflaged an inability to stop the run. Macdonald is known for his odd-man fronts and exotic blitzes. His Ravens defense tied for the league lead in takeaways last season. His personnel is not as talented in Seattle, which means his creativity will be on full display. Again, not ideal for Nix.

Rookies who have won at Lumen Field share common threads, namely not turning the ball over. And let’s be honest, for the Broncos to pull off the upset on the first stop of their revenge tour, it starts with running the ball. Nix has the cognitive ability to operate Payton’s offense, which will bend to the quarterback’s strengths. But a ground game is critical to helping him. Nothing forces fans to sit on their hands like a team that excels with its legs.

There is clearly a way to beat the Seahawks. They are nobody’s idea of a contender. But, sorry, history matters. Nix is going to win his share of games this season, but the numbers say his first victory won’t come Sunday in Seattle.

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He is the rare cornerback who doesn’t taunt opponents or spend news conferences shouting, “I am the best.” Because everybody already knows it.

The Broncos have believed since Surtain’s first training camp that he is their most talented player. Over the past three seasons he has proven it, earning two Pro Bowl nods and one All-Pro honor. He turns receivers into Chick-fil-A: they are never open on Sunday.

And the Broncos need more.

Surtain can’t be just a great cover corner. He has to elevate into a playmaker.

He is the Broncos’ new Champ Bailey. Bailey did everything but lead the Broncos to a Super Bowl title. No expectation seems unreasonable for Surtain – Ring of Fame, Hall of Fame. Those are honors he will someday share with Bailey.

It’s not fair, of course, to ask a defensive star to be a driving force behind making a once-proud franchise relevant. But it is Surtain’s reality after the Broncos signed the 24-year-old to a four-year, $96 million contract extension Wednesday with $77.5 million guaranteed.

Surtain reset the market, at least until New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner gets a new contract.

But here’s the deal with the deal. Surtain can no longer be defined by shadow statistics and deep-dive analytics. Every number reveals that teams are reluctant to challenge him. Every analysis of the All-22 film shows he dominates, especially on plays where he is not targeted.

Yet, there is a narrow pathway for Surtain to achieve a higher level. He needs more interceptions, more takeaways. There are two ways to achieve this: He has to take more chances, and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph must let him follow the opponent’s top guy more often.

“It’s a different game now than when Champ played. A lot more routes with safer throws,” former Broncos four-time Pro Bowl corner Chris Harris told The Denver Post. “If Pat wants more targets, more pickable passes, he has to guard the best receiver every week. There will definitely be some balls forced at him then.”

When the opportunity presents itself, the Broncos need Surtain to swing for the fences, even if it runs against every fiber of his family’s defensive back DNA.

Taking risks requires an understanding that it might lead to additional completions. That’s OK. As it stands, he is like the Broncos’ Aaron Judge. In baseball, teams can remove Judge from the equation by not pitching to him. Quarterbacks do the same thing against Surtain when they go long stretches without looking in his direction.

“You know (risk) comes with it,” Surtain said. “I’m just willing to grow and willing to get better each and every year. And I know what I can work on, and I know what I can get better at. I’m very confident in my abilities. There’s a high ceiling for me.”

In 2022, Surtain’s best season, he allowed fewer than 25 yards in 12 games. In 2023, he took a slight step back, dropping from the league’s top corner into the top five. In 2024, he is motivated to show he is the best.

It is a difficult assignment. Teams will not suddenly target him — not with every offensive coordinator determined to go after second-year pro Riley Moss until he proves he is a capable starter.

There will be moments, however, for Surtain to shine. Joseph can heat up the opposing quarterback, sending pressure from Moss’ side to force a team to look Surtain’s way. It is a nuanced wrinkle but must be employed, starting with the opener at Seattle when Geno Smith will be tempted to squeeze a deep pass to DK Metcalf.

We don’t have to imagine this. We saw it against the Green Bay Packers’ starters in the scrimmage on Aug. 16. Jordan Love fired in his direction and Surtain broke up multiple throws to Romeo Doubs on a comeback route and then deflected a pass over the middle to Bo Melton. After the practice, Love called Surtain “the heart and soul” of the Broncos defense.

Named a captain on Wednesday, Surtain is that guy. When asked who his favorite player was the last two years, Justin Simmons always said Surtain without hesitation.

But his statistics are a reminder of a trend that must be reversed. His interception total has dropped from 4 to 2 to 1. This isn’t his fault. He has done his job with the consistency of a metronome. Consider this a plea for him to look for his spots to pursue a turnover over a deflection.

Bailey lived this existence. In 10 seasons with the Broncos, he averaged 3.4 interceptions, scored three touchdowns and forced five fumbles. He finished with fewer than two interceptions twice.

This provides a template. The Broncos’ contract decisions are driven by whether a player will be here when they win again. Not only will Surtain be here, he will be a reason why they contend.

Surtain, remember, is the same age as quarterback Bo Nix. If Nix is the face of the franchise, Surtain is the face of the defense. He creates the standard with this excellence, his attention to detail.

Off the field, Surtain drips as the team’s best-dressed player.

The Broncos need a dose of that swag on the field. He earned his bucks, every last cent, leaving a simple request moving forward: Get more picks.

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Week 1 is here and Denver is headed to Seattle for a Sunday afternoon opener against the Seahawks. So Let’s Ride… wait. Let’s get to it.

Parker Gabriel, Broncos beat reporter: For all of the talk about Bo Nix and the Broncos quarterbacks this offseason, Vance Joseph’s defense has flown under the radar. But make no mistake: This group must get off to a much better start than it did last fall. Despite the turnover-fueled renaissance in the middle of the 2023 season, the total product put out by Denver last year did not look good. The Broncos finished 27th in scoring defense, 29th in yardage allowed, 30th in rushing yards allowed and languished near the bottom of ESPN’s win rates in both the run game and rushing the passer. In 2024, Joseph is betting on a more aggressive style and a revamped defensive line to turn things around. If it happens, this team could surprise and Joseph could find himself back on the head coaching interview circuit. If the Broncos falter, though, the pressure and conversation about Joseph’s job security will ramp up fast.

Not only that but Week 1 on the road against a coordinator new to the NFL in Ryan Grubb and a quarterback in Geno Smith who is not afraid to rip the ball down the field makes for a fascinating first test. All eyes will be on Nix, but the 2024 Broncos are going to go as their defense goes.

Troy Renck, columnist: Let’s not rush to judgment. The Broncos want us to believe they are different, that they are better. The only thing we know for certain is that they are younger. They are breaking in rookie quarterback Bo Nix in a hostile environment. How will they improve? The Broncos must run the ball well against a Seattle team that has been horrible against ground attacks the past two seasons.

Javonte Williams, 10 pounds lighter, regained his burst in training camp, making Samaje Perine expendable. But can he get better around the goal line? He has seven rushing touchdowns, all in the red zone, in 37 games. Or will the Broncos lean on the committee approach with Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime? New Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald is known as a defensive genius, but Seattle’s run personnel remains shaky unless rookie Byron Murphy dominates from the start. The Broncos must aim for 125 rushing yards to win, meaning Williams has to prove he’s still a capable NFL starter.

Ryan McFadden, Broncos beat reporter: Outside of Courtland Sutton, who else will emerge as a legitimate weapon for Nix? Sutton established himself as the best offensive option on Denver’s roster last fall. But if Nix wants to have a successful rookie campaign, he will need more than Sutton to contribute in the passing game.

Second-year receiver Marvin Mims Jr. has the speed to be a deep-ball threat, while Josh Reynolds and Devaughn Vele are big targets like Sutton. However, tight end Greg Dulcich could be the key for the Broncos improving their offensive production from last year. Dulcich hasn’t been able to showcase his true potential, as he has been plagued with hamstring injuries over the past two seasons. This summer provided a glimpse of what a fully healthy Dulcich can provide. Now it’s time to see it on the big stage.

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Keeler: Ramsay? Sunshine Sean’s been as chummy as Bobby Flay lately, my friend. Mind you, he also hasn’t lost a game in eight and a half months, so let’s see what happens once the seas get choppy. That said, Payton’s a high-floor coach with a resume that doesn’t do tank jobs. I believe in the back of the baseball card. Or football card, in this case. Which is why I believe Payton cajoles, twists and drags this roster to seven wins — at the worst.

Renck: Maybe I spent too much time in the sun this weekend, leaving me with fever dreams of adequacy, but I believe the Broncos trip the over. My prediction before camp was six victories with a wink, wink. Now? Give me six with conviction. Bo Nix might as well be Bo the Builder as the Broncos’ construction project takes shape. I think the Broncos were better after the cuts. Losing Tim Patrick hurts, but it means more targets for Courtland Sutton, and Jaleel McLaughlin will emerge as the third-down back to replace Samaje Perine. It’s not like they broke up Don “Air” Coryell’s 1970s Chargers. Denver has plenty of weapons to flirt with mediocrity.

Keeler: Perine is a good pro who became surplus to requirements the minute Payton fell in love with Audric Estime as the “thunder” to McLaughlin’s “lightning.” I’m still not convinced this is a better receiving corps without Tim Patrick, though — largely because a passing game without proven home-run threats needs all the good-hands dudes it can muster. We’re going to see a lot of dinking and dunking by Nix to keep drives alive, and a healthy Patrick has a history of keeping the chains moving. As the Motor City is about to find out.

Renck: I am a realist, not an optimist. If the Broncos get off to a slow start — entirely possible with so many young players on the two-deep depth chart — they will not recover. Not this year. All of their first eight games are winnable, and they must beat Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, New Orleans and Carolina. That means if they post victories in two of the following three home games over the final nine — Atlanta, Cleveland, Indianapolis — they will experience the joy of six. This Broncos team fascinates me because the franchise finally has a proven coach, who has never won fewer than seven games in 16 previous seasons, a young quarterback and a clear direction.

Keeler: It’s The Bo Show, for better or worse. But really? It’s The Sean Show. Last fall was the great experiment to see how well Russell Wilson fit Payton’s system, and it turned into an 18-week tug-of-war. The coach won. This offense is being hammered and molded entirely in his image now, and the locker room’s following suit. Which is how he likes it. Dove Valley’s basically Saints North. Payton’s New Orleans rosters never found themselves landing below the seven-win mark. The Bayou Broncos won’t, either.

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On a smothering early August afternoon, Pat Surtain II and Bo Nix walked off the practice field together, the last players to enter the locker room. They chatted and smiled, pleased with the afternoon’s workout.

This scene represented a Broncos future in something besides the upside-down snow globe they have been living in for the past eight years. The stretch includes no playoff berths — the second-longest active drought in the NFL, behind the New York Jets — and seven consecutive losing seasons.

If Nix joins Surtain as one of the Broncos’ best players as a rookie, the possibilities are endless. Optimism is growing among fans and the organization that this unannounced rebuilding project has unearthed its franchise cornerstone. Not someone to keep the seat warm or act as a placeholder, but a genuine stud capable of evolving into a foundational piece with undeniable curb appeal.

The Broncos can change the shutters, replace the shingles and paint the house. But none of it matters if they don’t hit on Nix. They need him to be good for the roster construction to work, for coach Sean Payton to begin mirroring his success in New Orleans.

Get this right, and the Broncos’ range of outcomes for their ceiling suddenly changes to nine wins and even becoming 2024’s Houston Texans.

Winning football games shouldn’t be this hard, requiring five coaches in nine years, new ownership, a carousel of coordinators, and a lock of Thunder’s mane. But, what if Nix is the guy? What if he is Bo the Builder?

Simply put, all the other pieces will fall into place.

“There is a lot of attention on Bo,d understandably so when you draft a quarterback in the first round. Every one of us recognizes the significance of getting that position settled and having someone at that position who we feel like we can win with,” Payton said. “When that is unsettled, it’s tough on your team.”

The Broncos have lived this existence. When Nix eventually takes his seat in the cockpit, there is hope he will end the madness. The Broncos have used 13 starters since Peyton Manning retired. At last, Nix looks like the fix.

Externally, the Broncos are viewed unfavorably, as a team in transition. Payton, however, has never posted fewer than seven victories in a season. He’s not about to utter the word “rebuild.” But it is semantics. All the hallmarks are in place. The Broncos shed veterans Justin Simmons, Josey Jewell and Jerry Jeudy, becoming significantly younger at multiple positions. Players are embracing their inexperience and hunger, believing it makes them dangerous.

Nobody symbolizes it more than Nix. Beginning in May and throughout camp, he flashed enough to suggest Denver finally has its bedrock Bronco at the game’s most important position.

This conclusion is not drawn easily. If you are going to play quarterback for the Broncos, you have to bring more to the huddle than knowledge of the playbook, check-down screens and robotic responses that seem like they were generated by AI.

Nix has some swag. It started when he threw a no-look pass early in OTAs and continued with his slow heartbeat against the Colts in the preseason opener.

“He has a very unique combination of humility and confidence that goes a long way for his position. And certainly, as a rookie stepping in here, there’s a lot of pressure on him,” right tackle Mike McGlinchey said. “He’s taken that in stride. And he’s not afraid of competition. There’s no fear of getting out there and going for it.”

The Broncos saw this when they evaluated his college tape. They removed all of the throws of five yards or fewer and still found a ridiculously accurate quarterback.

During his private workout for Payton in Eugene, the former Oregon star made 83 throws. Payton graded 82 with perfect location, the one miss on a pass where the receiver had to turn his shoulder. The ability to lead receivers, allowing them to catch a ball in stride, cannot be overstated. Nix’s first preseason touchdown looked simple in the box score — a 1-yard completion to Marvin Mims Jr. — but featured the sort of nuance that led Payton to draft him with the 12th overall pick.

There was quick motion across the formation by Mims. He was flat with no throwing angle for the quarterback. If Nix fired in front of Mims, he would lose yards. Throw it behind him and it would get deflected or picked. It had to be a dart. And Nix delivered.

In his preseason debut, 24-year-old Nix directed five drives, scoring on four of them, totaling 20 points.

“I mean he has a lot of college games under his belt. I feel like that experience has helped with his maturity level,” said rookie receiver Devaughn Vele, who faced Nix when Utah played Oregon. “He’s a great leader on and off the field. He gives off that vibe that he’s here to win.”

It was never one thing that made Nix the linchpin for this project. Payton wasn’t going to base the second chapter of his coaching legacy on the sheer joy of moving on from Russell Wilson. He had to believe he could identify his replacement in the draft.

In Nix, he has found a lot to like.

He processes information well, freeing him to get the team in and out of the huddle at rapid pace while leaving time to dissect the defense and call audibles if necessary. He gets rid of the ball in a blink — on time and on its mark. And he dealt with adversity in college, exiting his dream school Auburn after being benched multiple times and booed before reviving his career at Oregon.

“Watching his college tape was calming,” Payton said.

He doesn’t take sacks. Nix also keeps his eyes downfield when manipulating the pocket. And he runs well, leading Payton to modify his scheme to include Oregon-style zone reads and run-pass options.

Of course, nobody is saying Nix is perfect. Or will be. He throws off his back foot too much, drifting when it calls for him to step up and drive the ball.

There will be blemishes and mistakes. Rebuilding projects are never seamless, always fighting the calendar and rarely without labor issues, if not pains.

But watching Nix walk off the field with Surtain, it doesn’t take much to see him as the future face of the franchise and undeniable cornerstone.

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