All eyes are on Philadelphia where tens of millions of voters will watch former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris explain their positions and debate their differences on Tuesday.
This high-stakes moment could be the most consequential one in this truncated presidential election season. No one understands the importance of this debate more than President Joe Biden who ended his re-election campaign following his disastrous performance in the June debate.
The only thing that matters now is how each candidate gets to the winning total of 270 electoral college votes. As of today, Harris has 225 solid and likely electoral college votes versus 219 for Trump. This means that the presidential race will be won in six states representing three different regions.
Two are in the West: Arizona (11) and Nevada (6); two are in the South: Georgia (16) and North Carolina (16); and, two are in the Midwest: Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10).
With the exception of Wisconsin where Harris holds a narrow lead, recent polling data from FiveThirtyEight shows that Trump and Harris are within 1% of each other in the other 5 states. Biden won every one of these battleground states, except North Carolina in 2020.
What makes this debate even more crucial is that voting is about to begin. While November 5th is election day, forty-seven states offer early in-person voting. In North Carolina, mail ballots are sent to all voters who request them as early as September 6th. In Pennsylvania, early voting begins on September 16th when voters can visit their election office to request, complete and return the ballot. Other states vary on voting timelines.
Before Biden dropped out, Trump had a clear advantage. Biden’s base was weary and there was no clear path to victory. Harris, however, reset the election by energizing her base and attracting independent-leaning Democrats. Trump has been caught off guard. Trump needs to thwart Harris’ momentum, which won’t be easy given his caustic style.
For these two candidates, it’s not just about winning the debate, it’s also about not losing it in the style of a Biden-like performance. Both candidates need to find ways to connect with undecided voters without weakening their base.
The economy is the most important issue. Harris and Trump need to persuade voters that they understand the average American’s economic situation and have a viable plan that will make their lives better.
This year’s key issue hearkens back to 1980 when Ronald Reagan so effectively posed the question in the debate with President Jimmy Carter: are you better off today than you were four years ago? Based on polling, Trump has an advantage here. Harris has had less time to roll out her economic agenda while distinguishing herself from Biden. Harris has an opportunity to sharpen her message and close the gap, which will be pivotal to her success.
Their policy positions on immigration, foreign affairs, protecting democracy, crime and abortion will also matter, not only to energize their base to get out the vote, but to move the key swing voters. While polling shows Trump has the upper hand on the key issue of immigration, Harris has the upper hand on protecting democracy and abortion which has been costly for Republicans since Roe v. Wade was overturned. Meanwhile, both candidates will need to explain why their positions have changed on different issues.
Ultimately, however, style may prove to be more important than substance. There once was a day when looking presidential mattered and while that will be important for Harris, it has never been Trump’s strong suit as he chaotically mocks and insults his opponents. While it may be red meat for his most ardent followers, attacking Harris’s intelligence and racial identity or making sexual slurs against her will be a major liability in wooing undecided voters.
Harris and Trump both need to demonstrate they are likable.
Harris can do this by staying calm and showing humor, compassion, intelligence and sharing her personal journey. Harris can’t take Trump’s bait and she needs to be able to deliver an effective retort when Trump lies, like saying “there he goes again” or “he doesn’t let the facts get in his way.”
She was brilliant in her CNN interview when she was asked about Trump’s questioning of her racial identity and responded, “Same old, tired playbook” and, then said, “Next question, please”. As George Bernard Shaw famously said, “Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.”
Trump must resist his instincts to self-sabotage. He needs to be coherent and avoid delivering confusion and obnoxious bombs. Trump needs to demonstrate strength, steadiness, and leadership and figure out a way to take Harris off balance and script without crossing lines.
Whoever does these things best will likely be our next president.
Doug Friednash grew up in Denver and is a partner with the law firm Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck. He is the former chief of staff for Gov. John Hickenlooper.
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