Does projecting the Broncos to not be much over 5.5 wins show expertise? They won eight games last year with a sack-prone Russell Wilson and a lot of weaknesses. This year they not only have a much harder-to-sack QB and one who may prove to be among the best rookie QBs. They have a much-improved team. I am not a journalist, but I think the changes Payton has made warrant easily an 11-or-more-win season. We shall see, won’t we? Will a mea culpa be forthcoming if the Broncos exceed six or seven or even eight games?

— Stephen Leonard, Vidalia, Ga.

Hey Stephen, a perfectly fair question. You might be referencing my 6-11 pick in our preseason magazine or more generally the Vegas betting line of 5.5 wins for Denver on the season. And no, it doesn’t necessarily mean expertise. It’s just based on what I’ve seen during training camp and also the schedule. What I’ve said all along — and what doesn’t get communicated in a simple record projection — is that I think this team has more upward mobility than last year’s. And that’s largely because of Nix. If he goes out and plays at a high level from the jump or early in the season, then yeah, they have a great chance to surprise people.

But it’s fair to ask that we see more on that front before assuming it’s going to happen.

More than that, though, the six-win projection is not just about Nix. A year ago Denver was the healthiest team in football. Most roster depth issues they had went mostly without consequence. If that happens again, great. Life in the NFL doesn’t usually work that way. An injury or two on the offensive line or at wide receiver, corner or tight end and the depth gets skimpy in a hurry.

Your “much-improved” claim could end up being right, too. They’re certainly improved personnel-wise on the defensive line, for example. Sean Payton likes this set of receivers better than the one he had last year. But is the safety room improved after losing Justin Simmons? Is getting rid of Jerry Jeudy a guaranteed improvement? Or replacing Josey Jewell with Cody Barton? It’s the same offensive line except Luke Wattenberg at center instead of Lloyd Cushenberry, who got $50 million this spring from Tennessee.

On the quarterback front, you’ll get no argument from me that Nix is a better fit than Russell Wilson was. And Wilson didn’t play at a consistently high-level last year. But he also wasn’t terrible. There’s no one single catch-all metric for quarterbacks, but let’s take a cross-section: EPA per play (according to Sumer Sports): No. 19. Passer rating:  No. 8. QBR: No. 21. TDs: No. 9.

He took far too many sacks, but also only threw eight interceptions and logged 26 touchdown passes. He led an offense that wasn’t bad in most areas but was horrible in the low red zone.

It’s overly optimistic to just assume Nix is going to exceed Wilson’s performance across the board in Year 1. He could do it. It’s not impossible and it would certainly be a compelling story. But that outcome would be anomalous for a rookie taken sixth in his class, even one that’s a really good fit long-term for the situation he landed in.

Best part about all of this: We’re all finally about to find out together over the next 18 weeks.

Of all of the major league sports, is NFL cutdown the lousiest time of the year for its players? And in all honesty, do the Broncos have enough talent to escape the AFC West basement? Better yet, where will they slot in the AFC West?

— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.

Yeah, I’m sure there are tough weeks in other sports, too, Ed, but the cutdown in the NFL is brutal. It’s nearly 1,200 players losing their jobs in a very short amount of time. And the nature of the process is that most don’t get more than a quick meeting with the brass and a handshake. Of course, many do end up back on practice squads or get another chance at some point, but regardless, it’s no fun for players and agents and it’s not enjoyable for teams, either. But it’s the way of the league.

Escape the basement? Perhaps. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Denver finish ahead of Las Vegas, though that’s going to likely take ending the eight-game losing streak against the Raiders. The losing streak to Kansas City got all the attention, but it’s incredible Denver has not beaten the Raiders since they moved to Vegas.

Put me down for another tie with Vegas this year in the divisional race. Co-dwellers.

Hi Parker, with the dust settled on the initial 53-man roster, what is the Broncos’ current cap space for the rest of the season? Is there enough room to sign Pat Surtain II to a contract extension? Thanks.

— Brandon, Rogers, Minn.

Great question, Brandon. Both OvertheCap and Spotrac show the Broncos as being right up against the cap — think $1 million or less in space — as teams transition to the top-51 allocation for space.

That wouldn’t necessarily preclude them from getting an extension done with their star cornerback, though. Surtain’s cap number for this year is $6.67 million, of which $3.2 million is prorated bonus accounting and the rest is his salary and roster bonus. Denver might have to convert some other guaranteed money on its 2024 roster to bonus, but with a little bit of wiggle room could give Surtain a massive extension without his cap number this year rising too much from where it currently is.

Denver did a similar thing with Quinn Meinerz, who had his base salary for 2024 reduced to the minimum when he signed a four-year extension. That wasn’t a problem, naturally, because he’s getting paid a massive signing bonus as part of the new contract.

So it’s still possible to get a deal done, but Denver doesn’t have a ton of extra room to operate.

Who’s the most surprising name to make the team? For my money, it’s Eyioma Uwazurike, mostly in that I did not expect him to be reinstated by the league.

— Mike, Denver

Yeah, Mike, fair point there. Once he got reinstated and showed even a hint of being back to form, though, he became necessary for Denver to protect on its 53-man roster. There just aren’t many guys Uwazurike’s size who can move.

As for most surprising, there were a couple of twists and turns down the stretch. Payton didn’t plan on losing Mike Burton and Lil’Jordan Humphrey even though they were released and said he asked for their trust in starting them on the practice squad. Damarri Mathis went on injured reserve as a result of the ankle injury he sustained in the final preseason game. So on and so forth.

For most surprising guy who made it, maybe Blake Watson. It’s nothing against him, either. He just was hurt for some of the offseason program and got off to a slow start in camp. That’s not a good recipe for making the team. But he came on strong even just in the final week and the Broncos clearly weren’t willing to risk trying to get him through waivers. Good on him. I also went into the final stretch of camp figuring Frank Crum might be a developmental player on the practice squad, but scarcity probably played a role there, too. Teams are scouring for tackles who can bend and move. He’s not a finished product by any means, but I thought they might try to sneak him through and protect Trey Jacobs. Instead, they protected Crum and lost Jacobs on waivers to New England. So maybe they were destined to lose one or the other. That’s life with young tackles sometimes.

I have always maintained that games are won and lost in the trenches. The Broncos defensive line has clearly upgraded. In my estimation, the offensive line is still suspect, and very vulnerable should they experience injuries. The center spot is not strong; losing Lloyd Cushenberry hurt. Alex Forsyth (I know he is a backup) is simply not strong/powerful enough to hold up to the big D tackles. Mike McGlinchey is not as solid as hoped for when he signed as a free agent. Should any of these O-linemen get dinged, their backups represent a certain decline and vulnerability. Bo Nix absolutely needs solid O-line play to be successful. The play and health of this group will determine the success of this team.

— Kenny, Lake Oswego, Ore.

No argument here, Kenny. We’ll see how Luke Wattenberg fares at center early in the season. The Broncos knew McGlinchey was a better run blocker than pass protector when they gave him a five-year, $87.5 million deal last spring, but they could certainly use better protection this fall. Same goes for left guard Ben Powers.

The Broncos have four highly-paid guys up front. They have to drive the train. It’s really that simple.

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What do you think is the ceiling for Courtland Sutton this year? He’s a highlight reel with moments of brilliance, but he’s never put up consistent enough numbers in his career so far — probably due to the lack of a consistent quarterback. Can he be a 90-catch, 1,400-yard receiver this year? Will he even lead the team in catches or yards with the addition of Josh Reynolds and Tim Patrick coming back?

— Mike, Denver

Hey Mike, good questions and thanks for leading us off this week.

Courtland Sutton has a chance to put up big numbers this year not just because he’s in the second year of the offense with Sean Payton and because of Jerry Jeudy’s trade this spring to Cleveland, but also because he’s the type of player who makes a perfect security blanket for a young and/or inexperienced quarterback. He’s also got a slate of new incentives that can earn him up to $1.5 million above his base salary and roster bonuses as he achieves them.

So to answer your questions: I don’t think I’d go as high as 90 catches if I was predicting 2024 output for Sutton, but that mark is feasible. A 1,400-yard season would mark a terrific year but would also be a major surprise. His career best is 1,112 in 2019 and he’s averaged 792 the past three years. In that span, Sutton averaged between 13 and 13.4 yards per catch. At 13.4 per, he’d need 105 catches to crest 1,400 yards.

What would you say if I gave you 74 catches for 962 and six touchdowns? Given that Sutton hasn’t been above 64 catches or 829 yards since he missed most of 2020 with a torn ACL, those marks still seem optimistic but not so aspirational as to be out of the question.

Sutton’s definitely not benefited from the quarterback situation in Denver, though there are plenty of receivers who put up big numbers with bad quarterback play. Exhibit A: D.J. Moore, now the holder of a brand-new $100 million-plus contract in Chicago. He’s gone for 1,100-plus yards four of the past five years between Carolina and Chicago with his primary starters as Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold/Baker Mayfield and Justin Fields.

At this point Sutton’s the favorite to lead the 2024 Broncos in catches. The competition might be steeper on the yards front. Perhaps Marvin Mims Jr. can take advantage of an expanded role. Or perhaps the ball will get spread around enough that Reynolds, Patrick or somebody else can be around the top of the heap in that department.

Hey Parker, love your work! My question is about the tight ends. ESPN has Adam Trautman listed as the No. 1 guy on the Broncos depth chart. His production seems to be pretty limited in his four years in the league. Wouldn’t Greg Dulcich (if he’s healthy) or someone else who’s more of a receiving threat be a better option for the offense?

Also, do you think Jonah Elliss is going to have an impact in his rookie year? He was beastly with Utah and I could see him being fun with Nik Bonitto in the coming years.

— Quincy E., Lakewood

Yeah good question on the tight ends, Quincy. Not to sound too coach speak-y, but this is one issue with depth charts. They don’t have a lot of nuance unless you add a bunch of context to them — hey, we should do something that in The Denver Post one of these days!

Trautman right now is likely to play the most snaps among the Broncos tight ends, just as he did last year. In 2023, he was the guy they used most frequently as kind of a jack of all trades. They trust him as a blocker and he knows what he’s doing in the passing game, even if he’s not particularly dangerous after the catch.

Still, that doesn’t mean that other tight ends won’t feature prominently in the offense. If Greg Dulcich is healthy, he’s the team’s best receiver from that position. We’ll see if Lucas Krull can make the jump from good athlete to good player. Nate Adkins has a good shot, too, to carve a role as a guy who can motion around the backfield and be a sturdy blocker.

Why do all sports writers think we need a 365-day diet of Bronco “news”? There are other teams who treat players with respect and Sean Payton isn’t the answer to the Broncos’ woes. Who cares?

— Pamela Bell, Thornton

Hey Pamela, thanks for writing in. I would be all for it if the NFL wanted to go dark for more than a couple of weeks in the summer, but I don’t make the rules. If you are looking for excellent coverage from any of the other sports on the Front Range, you can find them in this very newspaper and on this very website!

My job is to cover the Broncos and the NFL and, for better or for worse, the league keeps marching toward trying to conquer all 52 weeks of the calendar.

So how long will it be before Sean Payton gets testy and snaps at his players or the Denver media this preseason?

— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.

C’mon, Ed! Have a little faith. In actuality, though, Payton made it clear from the start of training camp that the relaxing, summer, offseason program vibe is done. His go-to metaphor is that reporting for camp is like getting on an aircraft carrier for several months at sea. The vibes can still be positive, but the nature of the mission becomes not just known, but your every-day existence. With that comes a different level of intensity and, therefore, the occasional blow-up. Comes with the territory, whether you’re aboard the big ship or just reporting on it.

Thank you, Parker. Always grateful. No question. Let’s go BO-RONCOS! Best sports coverage in the great state of Colorado. Heartfelt thank you to everyone at The Denver Post.

— Dennis Murtha, York, Pa.

Appreciate the kind words and support, Dennis! It’s a fun group to work with and certainly there’s no shortage of stuff for us to cover.

Hi Parker, it feels like we’re making too big of a deal that Bo Nix is the only first-round quarterback taken by a Sean Payton-led team. It’s not like he was going to take a QB high in the draft with Drew Brees on the team, right? Also, are NFL experts nitpicking that Nix didn’t throw downfield very much in Oregon? It seems like he was executing the offense he was asked to run. Thanks.

— Brandon, Rogers, Minn.

Hey Brandon, a good way to end things today and an entirely fair point. The best reason to have not selected a quarterback in the first round is because you spent 14 years with a guy who arrived in town as a Pro Bowler — albeit one with major questions about a shoulder injury — and became a Hall of Famer. You could argue that New Orleans should have done more to land a quarterback of the future before Brees retired. Payton tells the story often about thinking they were going to get Patrick Mahomes in 2017 before Kansas City traded up one spot ahead and grabbed him at No. 10. Plus, when you’ve got a guy like Brees, it’s easy to say you should be thinking about a succession plan but you also want to put as many resources around him as possible to try to keep taking shots at winning the whole thing.

All of that is to say that there’s a pretty good reason why Payton hasn’t done this before. That, however, doesn’t make it any less compelling.

As for Nix’s arm strength and repertoire, yeah, he ran the offense he was asked to run at Oregon. He showed a bit of hard edge when he got introduced here by pushing back against the narrative of being just a short pass-thrower, saying, “Quite frankly, I completed a lot of long ones, too.” And he did. Payton said they took out the behind-the-line-of-scrimmage throws during their evaluation and Nix still led the country in several categories.

People see the big rainbow throws and say, “arm looks pretty strong to me,” and that’s fine. The question isn’t so much about whether he can step into a throw and huck it 55 yards on the go-ball. It’s more about if he can drive throws into intermediate windows 20-30 yards down the field, sometimes opposite hash, where you’re talking about putting the ball on a line for 40 yards in the air. Or on the run and trying to put a ball where it needs to be without a solid platform to throw from. Those are “arm strength” throws in the NFL. And that’s what we’ll all find out about together over the coming weeks, months and — if the Broncos and Nix get their way — many years.

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What letter grade would you assign this current Broncos roster? And where would this roster rank among AFC West opponents? And in your opinion, is this current Broncos preseason roster more talented than last year’s squad? And for better or worse, what’s the difference?

— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.

Hey Ed, timely questions and thanks for getting us going this week. Timely, of course, because the Broncos are just getting rolling in training camp.

This isn’t going to be the most satisfying set of answers, but it’s a little early for the measuring stick just yet. At the outset of camp, I think overall I’d say there’s plenty of reason to be skeptical about the overall talent level of the roster. This is one of the best parts of training camp, though. We get a few days to watch OTAs and minicamp, but being out there nearly every day for the next couple of weeks and watching how the work progresses is always instructive. You don’t get all the answers, but you learn a lot. My baseline at the moment is that I’m not convinced about the overall talent level, but given the number of unknowns and what is a pretty big group of young players who should be in a big part of their development arcs, I think there’s more room for that opinion to change in the next few weeks than a year ago.

Is it the worst in the AFC West? Third-best? Let’s give that a few weeks of camp and see what we think closer to the start of the regular season.

I have a hard time saying that this year’s roster is more talented than last year at this point. Again, that could change. It also doesn’t mean that the team couldn’t end up being better overall. But consider the list of key players who departed this offseason: WR Jerry Jeudy, S Justin Simmons, C Lloyd Cushenberry, QB Russell Wilson and ILB Josey Jewell. Do we know as of late July that their replacements are better? The guys who will be tasked with replacing them might in some cases perform just as well or might fit what Denver wants to do more cleanly. But on talent alone we’re talking net loss, I think.

However, when you ask about change, after quarterbacks the biggest change on the roster might be the defensive line. And that group should be better by leaps and bounds this fall. John Franklin-Myers, Malcolm Roach and Angelo Blackson each could have easily started last year depending on the situation. They should be upgrades themselves and they should also create more freedom and favorable matchups for Zach Allen and D.J. Jones.

Parker, if Bo Nix wins the starting QB job in training camp and during the preseason do you think the Broncos could get any trade value for whichever QB loses the backup competition between Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson? Or do you think Payton will keep all three quarterbacks?

— Robert Johnson, Kilmichael, Miss.

Yeah, that’s a great question, Robert. It’s possible, though not guaranteed. Much of that at any position is about what happens on the injury front around the league. Typically, there’s not a rash of QB injuries in the preseason, though stranger things have happened.

The way the practice squad rules have been changed, it’s hard to imagine many teams will keep three quarterbacks on the roster. Only eight did at the outset last year and there’s less incentive now. So you’re probably talking about a scenario where a team is convinced that Stidham or Wilson steps in squarely as their No. 2 and is easily the best option. Then you’re betting that you have to trade for that player rather than hoping Denver will waive one and you can put in a claim.

There’s a long way to go, obviously, but I’d be surprised if A) all three made the team and also B) the odd man out has much trade value. Sneaking one onto the practice squad seems more likely — it’s not like Wilson had a big trade market despite the low acquisition cost and the Jets’ willingness to eat half his $5.5 million salary — but we’re a long way from late August.

Parker, enjoy your coverage. You are the current Broncos beat reporter for the Denver Post. There have been several good Broncos reporters through the years. How does this impact your coverage today? Pressure to live up to previous reporting? Trying to find a new angle? How can you make yourself unique?

— David Brown, Silverthorne

Hey Davis, thanks for the kind words. And for sure, the history of Broncos beat reporters at The Post is impressive. That doesn’t create pressure to me, though. You just try to do the best job you can and do it in your own way. We’ve kept a lot of the stuff that previous beat writers here have done and we’ve created some new stuff, too. You’re always kind of trying to figure out what works, what doesn’t work as well and what readers want. Then go from there. It’s cool that each person has their own style, their own particular interests, strengths, etc., and that the coverage even on a beat that is so competitive and so inundated can kind of follow those.

Hey with training camp coming up soon, what’s the biggest position battle you see (outside of quarterback, of course)? I feel like it’s at center. Is it Luke Wattenberg who finally takes a step forward this year? Is it someone who’s not even on the roster yet?

— Mike, Denver

Indeed, Mike, center is a good one. Wattenberg and Alex Forsyth is a good battle and veteran Sam Mustipher is in there, too. There are all kinds of interesting battles — for wide receiver spots behind the top three or four, for work in the running back rotation, inside linebacker next to Alex Singleton, corner opposite Pat Surtain II, etc. That’s before you start down the road of special teams roles and who lands the final spots on the roster. Settle in, there’s going to be a lot of roster chewing to do over the next four-plus weeks.

In your opinion, is Pat Surtain II getting a contract extension this year?

— Marvin K., Westminster

Hey Marvin, good question. The next few weeks are the most interesting in terms of Pat Watch. The Broncos haven’t done an in-season extension since Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton in 2021, though neither that nor Denver’s Week 14 bye week necessarily preclude a deal from happening during the regular season. Payton wasn’t interested in talking about the likelihood earlier this week, saying, “That’s one of those answers, that, like, we’ll get to it when we want to.” If he meant talking to reporters, well, OK. Fair enough. But if he’s talking about actually having the conversations, it would seem that the sooner they want to do it the better. The price isn’t going to come down at all considering Surtain is 24 years old, he’s a two-time All-Pro and he’s already guaranteed $18 million plus for 2025.

All of that combined with Surtain’s top-shelf play and the fact that these weeks are prime time for getting extensions done makes it a natural window. Doesn’t make it a guarantee by any stretch, but it would make sense.

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Hello Parker! I know there are a lot of question marks on the roster, but I do like the moves they made this offseason. In fact, apart from the safety position where you can’t underestimate the loss of Justin Simmons, I don’t feel they particularly downgraded anywhere. I’d even argue that on paper there are even better at different spots. Whatever Jerry Jeudy becomes, he didn’t work in Denver and I like the addition of Josh Reynolds. They went after specific players on the defensive line to help against the run and John Franklin-Myers is a great addition. Several rookies from last year are in a position to make the jump in year two. Maybe a few rookies can contribute early (although maybe unlikely with Sean Payton). We don’t know yet who will be the QB, which is the most important, but we know it will be someone Sean Payton actually wants to work with. So, if we account for the continuity with Vance Joseph that should prevent another terrible start on defense, who’s to say they can’t improve on their 8-9 record from last season? Call me an optimistic naïve, but I believe.

— Yoann, Beine-Nauroy, France

Hey Yoann, thanks for writing in and for getting us going this week.

Don’t apologize for being optimistic. What’s the point of being a fan if you’re not going to bend that way most or at least some of the time? It’s always interesting to me when fans are relentlessly jaded or pessimistic. I know it’s a way of caring and, obviously, it means a lot to a lot of fans and so emotion is part of the game. But if you can’t be optimistic as a fan this time of year, why bother?

And looking through your offseason rundown, Yoann, I don’t entirely disagree with most or really any of the points you make about the roster.

It’s possible that Jeudy will go off in Cleveland, but it hadn’t happened here. Simmons is a big loss and I think more than just him, the real test is losing basically three of the four key communication pieces in the middle of the defense in him, Josey Jewell and Kareem Jackson. Or, maybe 2.5 since Jackson was in and out of the lineup last year due to the suspensions and then eventually released. Regardless, it’s no small matter that Singleton is the lone full-time player back from last year in the middle of the back two defensive levels.

The main thing that strikes me about the additions is that Sean Payton and company prioritized different skill sets. Reynolds is a good player. He’s not as purely talented as Jeudy but he’s going to give you something different – a big, rugged receiver who can make some plays in the receiving game and also block and bring toughness elsewhere. Brandon Jones is a different style of player than Simmons. So on and so forth. The key is if the improvements on the defensive line — and they look like substantial improvements to me — are enough to cover mild to moderate drop-offs elsewhere.

In the end, a lot of it will come down to quarterback play. Go figure. Russell Wilson didn’t have a great 2023 season but in order to be a clear upgrade from him you’ve got to get at least what, at least slightly above-average starting caliber play? Definitely possible, but at present, I think it’s fair to say also far from certainty.

If you could say today that they’d get that level of play at quarterback, they’d stay as healthy as they were in 2023 and they at least match their division record of 3-3 last year, then yeah, they’ll have a chance to improve on 8-9. They also might be breaking in a rookie quarterback, they were the healthiest team in the NFL last year and the division’s only getting tougher with Jim Harbaugh’s arrival to the Chargers, whom the Broncos swept last season.

All of that to say, is it September yet?

I was born in 1991 and have been a fan since the jump. Has there ever been a worse prolonged period of Bronco football than 2016 to present? Was it worse than this in the ’60s?

— Connor M., Dallas

Connor, how old do you think I am, man? Given that I was barely toddlin’ when you were born, I can’t say I have much in the way of first-hand knowledge of the 1960s. All the same, I think you’re justified wondering if this is the worst prolonged period of Broncos play in history.

During the 2022 season, I and other beat reporters seemed to regularly be spending time searching the record books for comparable offensive futility. That tended to produce a lot of references to the 1966 AFL season, when Mac Speedie’s Broncos mustered 14 points per game. You don’t need first-hand knowledge and a terrific memory to know that was a bad year. It was a second straight 4-10 campaign after back-to-back 2-11s with a 3-11 still ahead. That’s the worst stretch in franchise history, though it obviously was before the merger.

Since the merger, this is clearly the worst prolonged stretch. The only other times Denver’s had consecutive non-winning seasons were its first three in the NFL (1970-72), 1994-95 and then 2007-11. The latter two stretches, though, were mostly seven- and eight-win campaigns. The Broncos even won the division in 2011 at 8-8.

The past seven years, the club is 52-79. Peyton Manning’s four years before that produced 50 regular-season wins.

Another factor here is the parity in the NFL. Teams go from playoffs to bad years and back with regularity. So while continued domination is difficult — it’s what makes the current Kansas City reign all the more impressive — so is continued futility. The Broncos have the second-longest active playoff drought in the NFL at eight seasons behind only the New York Jets (13). Nobody else is more than six.

That means one of them’s got to make the playoffs this year. Right? Right?

What’s your opinion about the Broncos Week 14 bye? Seems a bit late for the season.

— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.

Hey Ed, thanks for writing in. Yeah, it’s late. In fact, it’s the latest bye week on the calendar. The Broncos aren’t the only ones. They share Week 14 with five other teams this season.

Certainly, most teams would tell you they’d rather have it earlier on the calendar.

Overall, though, the Broncos have a couple of things going for them earlier in the season. One is that the Thursday night game Week 7 at New Orleans does represent something of a mini-bye. They’ll get home late from that game but then will have the weekend off and likely only one true workday from Friday through Tuesday.

Then the other piece is, because of the lack of primetime games and the fact that the bye week arrives after a Monday night game against Cleveland, Denver only has one short week on its slate so far. That’s coming off back-to-back home games against Las Vegas and the Los Angeles Chargers before going to New Orleans.

Still, 13 straight games before a true bye week will be quite a slog.

No question. Just a heartfelt thank you to everyone at my favorite sports department. Very appreciative and always grateful. Absolutely love the Denver Post sports coverage. Truly the best in the business. Go Broncos!

— Dennis Murtha, York, Pa.

Best mailbag entry of the year. Thanks, Dennis! It’s a good group we’ve got. Adding Troy Renck back to our ranks has been terrific and is going to make for a great season on the Broncos beat along with Ryan McFadden, Sean Keeler and many others who get involved at some point in the process. And on the occasion when somebody brings this subject up, it’s always worth giving props to the people who make the operation run smoothly behind the scenes in Matt, Sarah, Lori, Joe, Jeff, Kevin and several others.

On that note, it is the quietest part of the NFL calendar. And that means the mailbag might be a bit more sporadic than usual the next few weeks. Thanks for reading. Training camp will be here before we know it.

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Why is Davis Webb so well-regarded? I’m not trying to knock the guy, but he’s only been a quarterbacks coach for a year and it’s not like we were super amazing in the passing game. It just sounds like he’s the second coming of Adam Gase in terms of QB coaches.

— Mike, Denver

Hey Mike, totally fair question. I wrote a story over the weekend about Webb and the critical role he’s playing as Denver’s 29-year-old quarterbacks coach in a group full of guys that are either inexperienced (Bo Nix), have a lot to prove (Zach Wilson) or a combination of both (Jarrett Stidham).

It’s maybe not a perfect comparison, but Webb’s kind of like a big-time prospect in baseball or an early draft pick in football, right? He’s young, he’s got tools that teams around the NFL seem to covet and he’s in a job coaching quarterbacks that typically is where teams look when they’re eyeing coordinators, head coaching candidates, etc.

Webb gets rave reviews from former teammates and coaches alike for his ability to teach. He did it even as a player with his “Dragon reports.” But he did more than that, too. He told me a story last summer about how the Bills got Stefon Diggs during the COVID-19 pandemic and Diggs had to learn the offense.

“There were no coaches allowed so I was meeting with ‘Stef’ an hour (at a time), three days at a week,” Webb said last year. “No one asked me to do that. They said, ‘We got Stefon Diggs.’ I said, ‘I got it. I’ll get him up to speed.’ We were in year three or four of that system so he was playing catch-up, but boy he played catch-up quick.”

Webb has played in a bunch of different styles of offense and has figured out how to be fluent across each of them. Teaching is about relating to both the subject matter and the student and then finding the path that allows the student to connect it all. Webb apparently has a knack for it.

That does not mean he’s destined to be the next Kyle Shanahan or that he’s a sure-fire upper-echelon NFL position coach. The Broncos certainly had middling quarterback play last year from Wilson and Stidham and some of that falls on the quarterback coach, for sure.

But it says something about Webb that Buffalo tried to hire him as its quarterbacks coach even before the 2022 season when Webb was 27 years old and still playing.

This is part of what makes him a compelling figure in the Broncos’ story this year and beyond. They absolutely have to make strides in the quarterback department and they’re tasking a guy who’s undeniably really bright and well thought-of but also undeniably very young and inexperienced as an actual coach to help lead that charge.

Like last year, there are a lot of years of experience around Webb and the quarterbacks in Payton himself, coordinator Joe Lombardi, passing game coordinator John Morton and now senior offensive assistant Pete Carmichael Jr., too.

Have the Broncos announced when they’re going to wear their throwback jerseys this season?

— Phillip B., Aurora

Hey Phillip, nothing official yet that I’m aware of, though we can put a pretty good guess on at least one date.

The Broncos’ alumni weekend is Oct. 6 for a home game against Las Vegas. Among those being honored are, of course, 2024 Pro Football Hall of Fame inductee Randy Gradishar and 2024 Broncos Ring of Fame electees Steve Foley and Riley Odoms. They all played on the 1977 team. The Broncos throwback uniform is a near exact replica of the 1977 uniform. In the design process, club officials picked that year because of its significance — they broke through and made the franchise’s first Super Bowl that season — and its place in the middle of the Orange Crush era. The throwback uniforms are designed to be just like that year’s model down to the patterns of the stripes in the socks.

I’m not a math major, but that seems like one plus one equals two.

The thing to keep in mind is that teams can wear alternates and throwbacks up to three times in a season. So if we figure that Oct. 6 is a good bet for the retro uniform, then there are two other times during the course of the season the Broncos can either wear that throwback or their navy alternate uniform.

Ja’Quan McMillian balled out last year. The dude just makes plays. He’s one of the best nickels in the league. We have to lock him into a long-term deal.

— Marvin Lee, Colorado Springs

He sure did, Marvin. One of the most impressive developments of the season, obviously, was McMillian going from barely making the roster to playing like one of the league’s top playmaking nickels in a few weeks’ time.

Nickel has become a premium position, too, in modern defenses. There aren’t many guys who can stay stout in the run game and make plays in the backfield while also covering some combination of backs, receivers and tight ends.

McMillian’s going to have to keep proving it, obviously, but he’s playing his way toward a lot of money. It just is possible it won’t come for a while still.

At present, he’s under contract for 2024 at $915,000 base salary and then his contract expires. If I have my Collective Bargaining Agreement jargon translator working properly today, McMillian would then be in line to be an exclusive rights free agent since he’d have two credited seasons (2023 and 2024) to his name. He was on the practice squad for 17 of 18 weeks as a rookie in 2022 before starting Week 18, which isn’t enough to get a credited season.

ERFAs can be re-signed at the league minimum by their current team and other teams don’t get a chance to get into the mix.

So McMillian’s not likely going anywhere anytime soon. If he keeps playing at his 2023 level, though, you’re exactly right, Marvin. He’ll be well worth considering for a long-term deal.

Will it be quiet and calm before training camp starts or might we see some madness and mayhem with Sean Payton and Broncos management?

— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.

Hey Ed, thanks for the question.

You never fully count out the possibility for madness and mayhem, but in general the Broncos have been in a relatively stable stretch here after the blockbusters of cutting Russell Wilson and Justin Simmons and trading Jerry Jeudy earlier this spring.

Famous last words, right?

There’s always the chance Denver will add another veteran or two as the summer goes along. Last year, remember, they cut kicker Brandon McManus after the draft and added Frank Clark on a one-year deal right about this time. The Clark move didn’t pan out the way Sean Payton and company hoped, but it was a move partially in response to Baron Browning’s offseason knee surgery. So something along those lines can’t be ruled out, especially if any injury issues beyond Drew Sanders’ Achilles tear come up. Neither can a surprise veteran cut after next week’s mandatory minicamp, though at this point you might figure that most will start training camp and see what happens from there.

As far as anything major on the coaching staff or front office — management, as you put it — never say never but that group also seems like it’s landed in a stable spot for now. Emphasis, though, on “for now.” You just don’t typically see organizations make major changes this time of year. To be sure, some people will be under the microscope this fall. But that’s every team in the NFL.

Otherwise, you’re talking about potential trades or long-term deals and those pictures haven’t changed all that much this spring.

We know receiver Courtland Sutton and left tackle Garett Bolles want new contracts — Sutton has two years remaining and Bolles is entering the final year of his deal — and defensive tackle D.J. Jones is also heading into his contract year.

We know the club at some point will set about trying to come to long-term agreements with cornerback Pat Surtain II and right guard Quinn Meinerz, though neither of those has to be done by the time the season starts.

So yeah, there are plenty of ways the Broncos could make news in the next month-and-a-half before training camp gets here. The question is just how many of them hit.

First things first: It’s about time the Broncos honored Steve Foley and Riley Odoms and inducted them into the Ring of Fame. It’s been long overdue for both guys. But can we bring up a couple of other guys who should also be in already? How about Ed McCaffrey and Al Wilson? Ed was clutch during those ’90s Super Bowl teams and Al’s one of the greatest defensive players we’ve ever had. Do you think they may make it next year?

— Mark, Arvada

Hey Mark, thanks for writing in. Not quibbling with your choices, necessarily, but there will be others to consider, too.

Namely, you’d have to think it won’t be long before the late, great receiver Demaryius Thomas is inducted. When that happens, will he be a standalone class?

Foley and Odoms are the first to be added to the Ring of Fame since 2021, which means they’re the first since the Walton-Penner Family Ownership Group bought the team in 2022. They wanted to take their time, tailor the committee and really get to know the process before the first additions of their tenure. Now going forward the question will be about the rate at which additions are made. As your question suggests — Foley mentioned this extensively, too, when he spoke to reporters last week — there is no shortage of good candidates. But it’s also not likely that there will be multiple additions per year every year.

Remember, before 2022 the club had inducted 13 Ring of Famers in 11 years. In the 11 years before that, it was just six.

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In your estimation, which Broncos, if any, are the most vulnerable to being cut or traded from now until training camp?

– Ed Helinski, Auburn, New York 

Hey Ed, good question. The starting point is you’re looking for players who have little to no guaranteed money on their contracts. Those are the easiest to move on from via cut or trade. Obviously, there’s likely to be more talk about Courtland Sutton and Garett Bolles over the coming weeks and months, though at the moment a trade of either seems unlikely.

Sutton’s not participating in the voluntary portion of offseason workouts and wants more guaranteed money on his contract — only $2 million of the two years and $26.5 million remaining on his deal is guaranteed — but it’s hard to see why the Broncos will be motivated to give it to him. Bolles is entering the final year of his contract and will turn 32 in a couple of weeks, though general manager George Paton said in March that Bolles, “still moves like he’s 25.”

Things change fast in the NFL, but as we sit here today, they look like a pair of veteran players at key positions who can help the Broncos this year and might help ease the transition to the NFL for a rookie quarterback like Bo Nix. At the same time, though, Denver’s actions so far suggest they’re not inclined to race to commit to either long-term.

The fact that they didn’t cut or trade either earlier in the offseason when they cut Justin Simmons and traded Jerry Jeudy makes it seem as though they’ll be here for 2024. You just never know when a good deal might come around.

Other than that, what you’re looking at is a bunch of veteran-ish types with low salaries who will have to beat out younger players. Just a sampling of those who don’t have any guaranteed money and might have to fight to make the roster: RBs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine, P Riley Dixon, CB Tremon Smith and WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey.

Now, will much of that happen before training camp starts? It depends some on if Denver makes any further free agency moves or likes a player who gets cut elsewhere around the league. Mostly, this is probably more training camp competition. But there’s always at least a little summer movement.

Hello from Finland!

So I was wondering, could there be a special connection between Bo Nix and Greg Dulcich with “Hoss Juke” — play? It’s said to be Nix’s favorite play and some dudes named Brady and Gronk made it special. Parker, are you excited to see how that play will turn out? Or would you rather see some other TE connecting with Nix? Are there some other plays you can’t wait to see? A Flea Flicker maybe?

– Jude, Lahti, Finland

Jude! Appreciate you writing in, as always. It’s a good thought and it’s the type of stuff the Broncos have the personnel to do if Greg Dulcich is healthy. Payton and the coaching staff downplayed Dulcich’s absence last year when he first got hurt, but watching training camp it was clear they had designs on him having a big role in the offense. And it makes sense, too. Tight ends have always produced under Payton and last year Denver ended up with about as little production as you could imagine from the position.

You know Payton and Nix — assuming he’s the one playing — are going to want a guy who can make plays up the seam. You’d think that’s Dulcich if he’s healthy or maybe Lucas Krull. One interesting element will be some of Denver’s bigger receivers like Tim Patrick and rookie Devaughn Vele. Payton’s already spoken highly of Vele’s ability in high-traffic areas and Patrick’s no stranger to it, either.

As for other plays, the one that jumps to mind is specific to this year: The kickoff. It’s going to be really interesting to see how teams handle it. The play is different for returners and coverage units, sure, but also for kickers. They’ll have to expand their repertoire to hit knuckleballs, line drives and all manner of other kicks. But you also have to carry the ball to at least the 20-yard line or it comes out to the 40 like a kick out of bounds. So it’ll be a fully reimagined part of the game and it’s going to be all trial and error through the preseason and early stages of the regular season.

It is early and there is a lot of time before the Broncos actually kick off for the first game. With that said, if you had a crystal ball, who would pick as the rookie of the year for the Broncos? Who would be the Broncos MVP? And most importantly, what is your educated wild guess on the wins and losses?

– Del, Lamar 

Oh, man, Del, you’re right that it’s early. Way too early for actual, educated guesses on this stuff. Obviously, Nix is going to dominate the conversation in terms of rookies if he wins the starting job. But the other draft picks are in really interesting situations and, in a way, a bunch of them are similar. What do RB Audric Estime, WRs Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele, OLB Jonah Elliss and CB Kris Abrams-Draine have in common? You wouldn’t pop any of them into the starting lineup right now without having seen any competition, but you also wouldn’t be shocked if they made a move in training camp.

Elliss might actually have the cleanest route to a rotation spot since you’d like to use four OLBs anyway and he might just slide in naturally with Baron Browning, Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto. Would you pick Abrams-Draine to start opposite Pat Surtain II today? It’d be guessing if you did. But would it be a total shock if he stacked up well against Riley Moss, Damarri Mathis and Levi Wallace once camp got rolling? Not really. Feels similar with Estime in the running back room and the rookies at receiver, too.

Did that distract you enough from the other questions? OK, Surtain MVP (duh) and check back later this week for a first-blush, totally serious, not-at-all-premature record prediction after the schedule gets released.

Hey Parker! Is there any chance the Broncos bring back Justin Simmons?

– Paul Michaelson, Livermore, CO

Hey Paul, appreciate you writing in. Never say never until Simmons signs elsewhere, but it seems very unlikely and has from the time he was released back in March. There wasn’t any talk of, “well maybe if.” The team put out a long goodbye statement. Now they’ve dished out No. 31 to Abrams-Draine.

And it’s not just that stuff, but they also signed Brandon Jones on the first day of free agency and brought P.J. Locke back. Those two plus Caden Sterns — he’ll have to prove he can stay on the field — are probably Denver’s trio. Then you’re hoping for a big Year 2 jump from JL Skinner. Delarrin Turner-Yell is working back from a major knee injury suffered right at the end of the season so he’s a question mark this year.

Now that we are at the time of year with new number assignments and changes, doesn’t it make sense to either retire the numbers 24 for Champ Bailey, 58 for Von Miller, and 88 for the late Demaryius Thomas, or put them back into circulation? It only becomes harder each year to have sufficient numbers available, which has been compounded since the league is now allowing certain defenders to wear eligible numbers from 1-19. What are your thoughts?

– A Referee, Greeley

Hey Ref, interesting question. I’m far from an expert on this type of thing. The Broncos only have three numbers formally retired — No. 7 for John Elway, No. 18 for Fran Tripucka and Peyton Manning and No. 44 for Floyd Little — but you’re right, there are others that haven’t been worn in quite some time.

Former Broncos VP of Communications Jim Saccomano in 2020 called No. 24 “unofficially retired” and that sounds about right. Hard to imagine somebody donning that number again without Bailey specifically giving the OK. Denver won’t be in a hurry to give out the others, either, I wouldn’t imagine.

The thing about numbers is they do get a little bit tight this time of year when there are 90 on the roster, but only 53 guys make the team at the end of the summer. There will be plenty of options.

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Hey Parker, how do you think the running back situation is going to be next year? Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin seem like they’ll be heavily used. And Samaje Perine had his moments last season. Where does Audric Estime fit into this system?

— Mike, Denver

Hey Mike, thanks for writing in and getting us going this week. Interesting question about one of the Broncos’ most interesting position groups.

This is the time of year when I make this caveat a lot, but here it is again for this week’s mailbag: It’s early. Really early.

OK, with that out of the way, the starting point on Estime is this: He got drafted in a position where the default assumption is he’s going to play. Maybe quite a bit. Now, the role is to be determined, but you don’t draft running backs in the middle rounds anymore if you’re not planning on them making an impact. The 6-foot-1, 225-pounder from Notre Dame played just three years of college ball and has just 373 college carries on his ledger. He scored 30 touchdowns in 25 games over the past two years. The biggest question at this point is probably about catching the ball after he had just 26 catches over that same span.

The interesting part, then, is that Denver has all three of its running backs from last year’s rotation still under contract for 2024.

Williams is the wild card and here’s why: It’s difficult for an outsider to evaluate his 2023 season. When you look at the numbers on the surface, they’re not pretty. He averaged 3.6 yards per carry despite rushing behind a blocking unit that finished third in run block win rate, one of ESPN’s advanced metrics. According to PFF, he forced 63 missed tackles as a rookie on 203 carries and then just 34 misses on 217 carries last year. His longest run of the year was 21 yards, he did less damage after contact and averaged 2.6 yards per carry over the final four games of the season.

However, he also played 16 games despite being less than a year off a significant knee injury that involved multiple ligaments and has cost players in similar positions 12 months or more. Coaches and teammates marveled at his rate of recovery and his ability to keep himself on the field. If he’d have played half the season, he’d get a pass considering the injury he had. So it doesn’t seem fair to dock him for getting back early and playing in every game but one.

The NFL, of course, is not fair. Perhaps particularly for running backs. Williams’ 2024 will be a fascinating one. Is he all the way back to pre-injury form? Or did it diminish his abilities?

Perine had 50 catches last year and McLaughlin is a dynamic change-of-pace guy, but probably not an every-down option at the moment. They’ve got relatively defined roles. Perine, in particular, will be tasked with showing he provides something to the offense that Estime doesn’t.

Most teams don’t keep four running backs on the 53-man roster. And the Broncos will also get a long look at Memphis undrafted rookie Blake Watson and returning practice squad-er Tyler Badie this summer. The competition’s just getting started.

Do you think we’ll see much from Troy Franklin this season? Two years being Nix’s No. 1 target at Oregon, he’s got to be a safe target for our new QB.

— Ryan C., Denver

Yeah, Ryan, good question. Ask me again in mid-August. Just kidding, kind of.

If you were penciling in a top trio right now based on the roster — and not on voluntary workout attendance — you’d likely go with Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds and Marvin Mims Jr. Then after that you’ve got Tim Patrick coming off back-to-back seasons lost due to injury, Brandon Johnson, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Jalen Virgil coming back off a torn ACL last summer and some veteran practice squad guys like Phillip Dorsett and David Sills.

That’s a lot of bodies for Franklin and seventh-round pick Devaughn Vele to compete with, but it’s not like the room is stacked with overwhelming recent production, either.

Franklin’s got a combination of traits not otherwise found in the room. Denver’s got guys with size. It’s got speed with Mims and Johnson. Franklin, the No. 102 overall pick in the draft, has both. Now, he’s got to learn the offense. He’s got to catch the ball consistently. He’s got to show he can be trusted not just by the familiar quarterback in Bo Nix, but also by the coaching staff and the other quarterbacks.

If he does all that, he’s going to have a great chance to play a lot. Assuming the room looks as it does currently, that still might not mean a ton of targets right out of the gate. The Broncos have other options, particularly at the top line. But he’s a guy who can scare defenses at 6-foot-3 with his speed.

Right now it’s safe to assume that the quarterback spot is Bo Nix’s to lose, right? I can’t see us marching into the new year with Jarrett Stidham under center.

— Mark, Arvada

How safe are we talking, Mark? It’s not a guarantee. Nix is going to get a good, long look this offseason. He’s going to get every chance to prove he can be the guy right from the jump. In last week’s mailbag, we covered several of the reasons why he’s got a chance to do it and why it would make sense to roll with him if he shows that he’s even in the same neighborhood as Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson.

But he’s got to actually do it. And he’ll get the chance to start doing it for real at this weekend’s rookie minicamp. Let’s see if we can all keep from massively overreacting to a couple of days on the grass in May. Forecast says…. Not particularly likely.

Of the following, what’s your favorite and worst part of the offseason: writing this mailbag, reporting on free agency movements, Denver roster cuts, profiling draft choices or speculating on mock drafts? Or maybe something else?

— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.

Hey Ed, fun question and a tough one. The actual best part of the offseason is getting somewhere for a few days where your cell signal doesn’t work and you have no choice but to completely forget about it.

The NFL does a masterful job of staying in the conversation all offseason, so there’s usually something going on or coming up. Some of it is more enjoyable than others, naturally. Of course, you’re interested in the big free agent signings and early-round picks, but there are always interesting stories from the other players, too. One of the underrated parts is getting a look at rookie minicamp, then the mandatory minicamp, then the early days of training camp and trying to figure out who’s got a real chance to make the roster. You know maybe 40 of the guys that will make it, but sorting out the rest is always a fun challenge. Then the other constant is that it’s hard to beat the NFL combine. Essentially the entire league is there for the better part of a week. It’s a great time for reporting, networking, catching up with friends and colleagues and, oh yeah, learning about the draft class, too.

And, of course, The Mailbag is great! We get really good questions about the Broncos every week no matter how far away an actual game is. Pretty cool. Keep them coming.

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Is it safe to Buy a Bo Nix jersey? Fans wanna know because of the revolving QB door we seem to have.

— Maria England, Phoenix

Thanks for getting us going this week, Maria. Do you have the shirt Sean Payton referenced with all the Broncos quarterbacks and their names crossed off?

There’s risk in buying almost anybody’s jersey these days. You’d have answered this question in the affirmative, strongly, just two years ago for Russell Wilson. Nix is going to get a lot of time, energy and resources put into his development and Payton and the Broncos clearly believe in him. And, hey, either way it’ll be a collectors item. Or something like that.

Of course, the question now is what number will Nix wear? He was No. 10 in college, but that was announced as Zach Wilson’s number after the trade. What if he wore No. 0? Or perhaps he can convince Tremon Smith to give up No. 1? Or perhaps this is more of an organizational decision: Bo Nix is the first-round draft pick and he’s getting No. 10. Sorry Zach. No. 16 will look great on you.  Here’s a gift card to Shanahan’s for your troubles.

Might the Broncos be asking for trouble and a quarterback controversy by having Bo Nix and Zach Wilson on the roster simultaneously?

— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.

Hey Ed, thanks for writing in. Aside from the jersey number thing, there’s no trouble in having Wilson and Nix on the roster together. It could create a very interesting preseason camp come late July and a competition between those two and Jarrett Stidham. But I don’t see why it would cause trouble. There is usually some truth, though, to the truism about the position: If you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks. That’s not always true, but often it is with a competition like this one.

That’s no knock, either. The Broncos have made it clear the entire offseason up to this point that they didn’t think they had a surefire guy and they spent months looking for one. Now it’s more about not knowing if they have the guy and who that guy is. The most likely candidate is probably Nix. Maybe Wilson undergoes a massive transformation playing for Payton, but if we’re setting odds, are you taking that or Nix as a serviceable-to-good starter early in his career?

Parker, who do you think will be our starter at QB in Week 1? And what do you think the Broncos QB room will look like this fall? Bo Nix is a given whether he starts or not, but do you think Zach Wilson can beat out Jarrett Stidham?

— Mike, Denver

OK, carrying along the same line of thinking, Mike.

Let’s preface this all with the obvious: Two of these three guys have never actually practiced in a Broncos uniform yet. There is plenty of time for a competition to sort itself out.

All the same, the starting point might still be instructive. So, let’s run through it.

The argument for Nix playing right away is pretty straightforward. You drafted him No. 12 overall. He’s got a good number of veterans around him and an offensive line that’s mostly intact from last year. The one guy who’s not back is center Lloyd Cushenberry, and his replacement could end up being Alex Forsyth, one of Nix’s college centers. Not only that, but Nix started an FBS-record 61 college games. He’s 24 years old. He’s only green in the NFL sense and the only way to not be NFL green is to play. The reality is there’s also not a ton of expectation on the Broncos this year and if Nix doesn’t play extensively, he doesn’t grow into 2025 when most of Russell Wilson’s money will be off the books and Denver will have more flexibility.

Of course, none of that matters much if he doesn’t engender confidence among the coaches and his teammates between now and September. He’ll get plenty of chances to do just that.

Stidham and Wilson each have advantages and disadvantages from where they start. Stidham’s biggest is that he’s been in the system for a year already and has a big lead in terms of understanding the hows, whats and whys of playing quarterback for Sean Payton. Wilson has the raw ability that made him the No. 2 overall pick just three years ago.

Then, of course, there’s the money conversation. The Broncos are paying about half of Wilson’s $5.5 million guaranteed salary this year and, according to OvertheCap, has a cap number of $2.73 million. That’s all guaranteed, so Denver’s paying it (and counting that number against its cap) regardless of what happens.

Stidham has a $7 million cap number but only $1 million in guaranteed money for this year. Cutting him would leave $2 million dead on Denver’s books but clear $5 million in space. Advantage to Wilson in that department, but we’re not talking about the type of money that has to be a deciding factor. Just, it could matter if the race is close.

Remember, too, that the NFL instituted a rule change that allows practice squad quarterbacks to be elevated for game day as many times as a team wants this fall as long as he counts as one of your maximum two game-day elevations. That further reduces the incentive for teams to keep three quarterbacks on their 53-man rosters. Not to say the Broncos couldn’t keep all three, but Payton historically hasn’t.

Our new third-round pick — Jonah Elliss from Utah — will he be expected to take over Josey Jewell’s MLB position/responsibility?

— Michael Good, Wichita, Kan.

Hey Michael, that’s an interesting thought but the bet here is that Elliss will play on the edge from the start. The Broncos like his pass-rush ability and think he can hold up against the run even though he’s not the biggest at 6-foot-2 and 248 pounds.

The wrinkle here, though, is whether Elliss’ selection bumps Drew Sanders back to the middle full-time. Elliss would make a four-man rotation with Baron Browning, Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto on the edge. Denver also has a couple of guys in Ronnie Perkins and Thomas Incoom who spent time on the 53-man roster last year and should at least be in the mix again this summer.

Sanders, meanwhile, was originally drafted as an inside linebacker — Payton has called both Sanders and Elliss “pressure players” — but he ended up playing some on the edge down the stretch. The question is if Sanders bumps back to the middle now or if he stays on the edge. In the middle, he’d compete to play alongside Alex Singleton with Jonas Griffith and Cody Barton primarily. That looks like his better route to having a big role, but he has to show he can play in the middle of the field.

Aside from Bo Nix, which one of our draft picks has the best chance at making the biggest impact in 2024?

— Reagan R., Aurora

Reagan, thanks for writing in and a great question. We’ll probably have a better idea by the end of minicamp in mid-June but obviously the fullest picture will be a few weeks into August.

Let’s put them in a couple of buckets: Elliss probably has the cleanest role. He’s joining three other OLBs in a room that really needs another contributor. But if all four are healthy he’s probably playing a subset of snaps.

The depth chart picture is a little muddier at present for Audric Estime, but you don’t draft a running back in the middle rounds anymore unless you think he’s going to have a big impact. If Javonte Williams is fully healthy, he’ll be in the mix, obviously. Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin each carved roles for themselves last year. But if Estime is ready to roll, he’s going to.

Franklin has the upside. There are veterans on the roster ahead of him currently in Courtland Sutton and Josh Reynolds plus other options like Marvin Mims Jr., Brandon Johnson, etc. But his talent is clear and if he makes an impact, it could be a big one.

The widest variance is Kris Abrams-Draine. He could end up being just a special teams guy and a reserve, but he’s got a chance to jump into a wide-open battle for the job opposite Pat Surtain II and he’s doing it for a new position coach in Jim Leonhard, who will be treating everybody as if they have a clean slate. Is he the fifth corner and a back-of-the-roster guy? Or is he maybe a starter? That will be a fascinating battle the rest of the spring and summer.

I’m a little surprised we didn’t go after a tight end in the draft. Greg Dulcich’s been bitten with the injury bug and our other tight ends don’t strike me as offensive threats.

And any early guesses if any of our undrafted rookie free agents get a roster spot?

— Matt Sullivan, Colorado Springs

Yeah, Matt, same here. One interesting thing Payton said: At the end of each draft day there are a few guys you know are going early the next day. Denver moved up to take Franklin with Saturday’s second pick (No. 102 overall). The guy that went No. 101, Texas TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, was also surprisingly available. Wonder if they’d have made a similar move up in the event that Carolina had taken Franklin.

The Broncos really need either Greg Dulcich or Lucas Krull to produce this fall. Dulcich has the talent, but he’s got to stay healthy. If he does, look out. But it’s a big if at this point. Krull has some promise, but a lot of refinement left to be a bona fide difference-maker. It’ll also be interesting to see how Nate Adkins develops in Year 2. He’s probably not going to suddenly be a weapon up the seam and in the passing game, but he had a nice rookie season as an undrafted guy and has room to grow.

One of the best parts about rookie minicamp — coming up in a couple weeks — is getting a first crack at seeing the undrafted guys. McLaughlin and Adkins both stood out last year. Brandon Johnson the year before that. But there’s also always some surprises, too.

The first step is to follow the money, but that does get blown out of proportion sometimes. The guarantees given to players like RB Blake Watson, S Omar Brown and Wyoming OL Frank Crum don’t necessarily mean they’re going to make the 53-man roster. It does mean, however, that they’ve been evaluated as strong bets for the practice squad at least. So start there and then let’s see what the other guys can do. Positionally, you’d think there’d be room for DL Jaylon Allen, ILB Levelle Bailey and CB Quinton Newsome to make some noise.

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Hello from Finland! If the Broncos trade down and take Michael Penix Jr., what could they gain pick-wise? And how many turns would it be “safe” to trade down?

— Jude, Lahti, Finland

Yo Jude, thanks for writing in as always and for getting us going this week. Great question. As with most things, the ultimate answer is that you get what the market offers in situations like this.

We have several tools on how to value draft picks, but the Broncos’ trade-down options from No. 12 center largely on who’s available at that point and how many teams want to come up? Maybe the most interesting scenario is, what if the Broncos stay at No. 12 and when that pick comes up, Georgia tight end Brock Bowers and Penn State tackle Olu Fashanou are still on the board? That might convince a team that they have an opportunity to come up and get a player they view as special. Or it could be somebody else, obviously. But that could also make the Broncos more tempted to just stay and take that player, too.

As for what the actual pick is worth, take the Jimmy Johnson chart as one example. The trades that Sean Payton has historically made in the draft track generally along the lines of the Johnson chart.

In terms of straight numeric value, that means trading back anywhere past 17 would require something equating low-end second-round value in return. To hit the midpoint of the second round (No. 48 overall), you’d have to go back to the early 20s.

Of course, it also takes a team that has picks you want and also wants to move up. Just for kicks, here are a handful that line up closely on the Johnson chart without any consideration for team needs, other picks and any number of other factors that come into play.

The Broncos’ No. 12 is valued at 1,200 points.

Philadelphia’s No. 22 and No. 50 add up to 1,180

Seattle’s No. 16 and No. 81 (third-round) add up to 1,185

Green Bay’s No. 25 and No. 41 add up to 1,210

Arizona’s No. 27 and No. 35 add up to 1,230

Pittsburgh’s No. 20 and No. 51 add up to 1,240

There’s so much talk about the Broncos needing to move up in the draft and basically mortgaging our future — again — for a quarterback. We’re not going to be good this year, so why not try and build a quality foundation of younger talent? We desperately lack talent on this team and we can’t get better until we acquire some. Giving up future first-rounders isn’t the answer. What about trading down our No. 12 pick for more assets? We have plenty of holes we have to fill.

— Phil B., Denver

Yeah, Phil, I don’t disagree. Some of the math on moving down is above. You could also make an argument that, if there’s really a run on four or more quarterbacks at the top of the draft, a real impact player might be sitting right there at No. 12. Would you rather have an extra second-rounder or Georgia tight end Brock Bowers? An extra second-rounder or maybe a decade-long answer at left tackle? As general manager George Paton said last week at the NFL’s spring ownership meetings in Orlando, there’s going to be a really good player available at No. 12.

Every time that conversation sparks up, though, the easy counter is this: What does it matter if you don’t have an answer at quarterback? Totally get the roster-building idea and agree. The Broncos need a couple years here with a bunch of picks and a good hit rate. If you get a chance to settle the quarterback position, though, it’s got to be done. So the balance is making that happen without forcing the issue with somebody you don’t truly believe in.

With the offseason being all about who’s going to be our next starting quarterback, has there been much talk about bringing in another former Colts QB? How about Andrew Luck? I know he hasn’t played in six years, but he’s still just 34.

— Mark, Arvada

Hey Mark, interesting thought. Don’t think that’s going to happen. Luck said in March — in an interview in Japan, randomly — ”You don’t even have to finish the question. No, not in my life.”

Sean Payton did cause the ears to perk up a little bit in Orlando when he said the Broncos still had options on the market at quarterback, “relative to guys who are currently in this league or have played in this league.”

Maybe the second part was just Payton talking. Or maybe there’s somebody out there. Tom Brady! Phil Rivers! Drew Brees! Maybe Matt Ryan wants to come out of retirement and play with his cousin, Mike McGlinchey.

Those range between far-fetched and impossible for their own reasons. Brady because he’s well into the process of buying a stake in the Las Vegas Raiders. Brees because he’s said he can’t even throw a ball with his right hand anymore. So on and so forth.

We’re going to sign another quarterback, right? We’re sitting here with just Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci on our roster with the possibility of drafting one next month. That surely can’t be it.

— Paul Smith, Colorado Springs

Paul, thanks for writing in. Yes, the Broncos will add another quarterback. It’ll be a stunner if they start training camp in late July with Stidham and DiNucci and an arm from rookie minicamp or something like that.

At this point, though, there’s no reason to force it before the draft. There are still several different avenues available. One that’s on the board but hasn’t been talked about a ton: The Broncos get going in the draft but they don’t like the way the board falls. Maybe they use No. 76 or trade back slightly from there and use that pick to try to pry Jake Browning away from Cincinnati. Heck, maybe they get into Day 3 and they are actually able to collect a pick from the New York Jets for taking Zach Wilson and his 2024 salary.

If they’re mining the post-draft free agency market, veteran Ryan Tannehill comes to mind as a potential option.

So far the approach has been trying to find a long-term solution at quarterback. It didn’t happen in free agency, so most of the attention is now on the draft. At some point, especially depending on how the first round or two go, the conversation could shift to filling out the room rather than fixing it.

In your opinion, were all of the new NFL rule changes necessary? And if not, which ones could have waited or should never be considered again? And with the NFL’s adoption of the new kickoff rules, who currently on the Broncos roster is the kick returner? Or might Denver need to draft or sign players to fit that specific need?

— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.

Good question, Ed. It was indeed a busy year on the rules front for the NFL. The hip-drop tackle ban and kickoff change got the most publicity and for good reason. I definitely hear the players’ concerns about the hip-drop tackle and think it’s going to be a mess to try to officiate in real time. What the league is likely to do is instruct officials to only call it in flagrant situations and then they’ll try to adjudicate it out of the game by fining players after the fact.

The kickoff rule is going to be a fun experiment. The more prudent way to go would have been to test it in the preseason for a year, but the NFL decided instead to just roll it out for a season. If it gets really bonkers, maybe they’ll nix it for the playoffs But it should be exciting. And it’s a great question about who the returner is. The obvious answer is Marvin Mims Jr., who was an All-Pro kick returner as a rookie. What will be interesting is if the same skill-set that worked for returners under the old rules still applies for the new ones. The bet here is Mims will still be really dangerous back there, but maybe someone else will emerge under the new setup.

One rule change that will have sneaky consequences: Teams can now elevate a practice squad quarterback for game day as many times as they want. Other players can only be elevated three times.

This provides teams flexibility, but also takes away almost any incentive to keep three quarterbacks on the 53-man roster. Most teams don’t anyway, but now the only reason you’d promote a third is if you know you’re going to lose him. And if that player has a chance to be a true No. 2 or get on the field, he might just leave off the practice squad anyway.

Elevating a quarterback will still count as one of two possible practice squad moves each week, so it’s not a free elevation. But it will still probably impact the number teams that carry three guys on their 53.

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I can understand Sean Payton’s frustration when his play calls get a receiver (like Jerry Jeudy) wide-open and Russell Wilson doesn’t see him. But might it make the most sense to have the Broncos bite the bullet, keep Wilson as their QB since they have to pay him anyway, and concentrate on making the team better in all other areas? Wilson was serviceable, after all, and additional coaching and refinements could make him more effective.

— Fred Waiss, Prairie du Chien, Wis.

Hey Fred, thanks for writing in and getting us going. You’re not wrong on the last sentence, but the hang-up is the “pay him anyway” part. The Broncos are no doubt going to pay Wilson a lot of money (and account for a lot of it on their salary cap), but the issue has always been the $37 million that becomes guaranteed on March 17 for 2025. That money doesn’t count against Denver’s salary cap obligations for Wilson today. It will four weeks from now if he’s still on the roster.

The options at present are:

1. Wilson counts $85 million between 2024 and 2025 to not play for Denver.

2. Wilson counts $122 million between 2024-26 to play 2024 for Denver.

That’s why these coming weeks are most likely Wilson’s last ones as a member of the Broncos. Never say never, but Wilson’s made it clear that, at least as of the end of the season, he was not willing to move the guarantee date on his contract. If he’s going to re-work his deal, it’s probably only to facilitate a trade. But teams that might consider a trade know he’s likely to be cut soon enough, too.

Would it make sense just practically speaking to have Wilson as a bridge to a young quarterback? Yes. But the reality of the contract situation — and the next question below — continues to add up to the most likely outcome being a release on or before March 17.

Sean Payton strikes me as Bill Belichick 2.0 in dealing with questions from the media. Wordier but lacking in real content. What do you believe is his real relationship with Russell Wilson, not personally but with regard to his intent to keep or play him ever again? Russ appears to be planning on lowering his altitude in 2024.

— A Referee, Greeley

Hey Ref, thanks for the question and hope the weeks without football on TV aren’t too rough on you.

Here’s the sort of ironic part about Payton’s role in this: He’s been adamant the whole time that benching Wilson was a football move. Not a don’t-risk-the-$37-million-guarantee-date move. And while it begs belief that he would have no idea and no care in the world about the ramifications of that date, if you take him at his word about the football move and that he doesn’t care about players’ contract details, then why would Wilson be back in 2024?

Payton’s never said “Russ isn’t my type of quarterback,” but every time he talks about his type of quarterback, he talks about stuff other guys do well. Just one example: At the Super Bowl, his examples about fast processors were Drew Brees (duh) and Patrick Mahomes.

Clearly he got frustrated with Denver’s offensive performance late in the season and it’s also clear he felt at least part of the low-red zone struggle and overall inconsistency fell on Wilson.

End of the day, actions speak louder than words, right? The Broncos tried to approach Wilson midseason about a contract restructure because they weren’t comfortable with the idea of his 2025 money becoming guaranteed if he got hurt. Then later in the season, Payton benched him for the final two games.

Now, Wilson and Ciara are taking showings and offers on their Cherry Hills home.

Not much in there that points to a likely reunion.

Want to get your thoughts on the Broncos trading back from 12 to the 20s to get Bo Nix? I think he’s the most NFL-ready QB and would fit great in Coach Payton’s system. I’ve done several mock drafts online and think that the Broncos could get several 2024 and ’25 draft picks by making two or three trades back in the draft (from 12 to 15 or 16, then from 15 or 16 to 21 or 22) and still get a first-round quarterback (either Nix or J.J. McCarthy). What say you?

— James, Aliso Viejo, Calif.

Parker, Really nice to see how you have settled into your role at The Post over time. Would appreciate your comments on the route you think the Broncos should take at the draft. With a lack of draft capital, especially that second-rounder, I can’t see any way selecting one guy at No. 12 makes sense. Trading down at least once will garner you a solid player later in round one with the ability to nab either Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix or J.J. McCarthy at the top half of the second round at the very least. Cheers!

— Allan, Vancouver

Let’s take James and Allan’s questions together and talk draft and trading back. Maybe it’s better to frame the decision-making process this way: The best arguments for staying at No. 12 (or moving up a couple of spots) are two scenarios. One is that a quarterback you really, truly feel good about is there for the taking. The other is if an early run on quarterbacks (let’s say four in the top 7-8 picks) pushes elite talent (and thus outsized value) down to you. Either is possible.

But let’s say for the sake of argument that you don’t love J.J. McCarthy or the second tier of quarterbacks and that you have at least somewhat similar grades on a batch of players who are available at No. 12. That’s a trade back all the way, though it’ll take a dance partner to do so. Denver has enough other needs and has been lacking in high-end draft picks for long enough that this could well end up being a prudent move.

The way NFL folks talk about McCarthy, he may not be an option if you trade back. Maybe Nix or Penix solidifies himself as a first-rounder, but I’m not sure about that for either at this stage.

Just for kicks, here are the QBs taken between No. 12 and the end of the second round over the past eight drafts.

2016: Paxton Lynch (26), Christian Hackenberg (51)

2017: Deshaun Watson (12), DeShone Kizer (52)

2018: Lamar Jackson (32)

2019: Dwayne Haskins (15), Drew Lock (42)

2020: Jordan Love (26), Jalen Hurts (53)

2021: Mac Jones (15), Kyle Trask (64)

2022: Kenny Pickett (20)

2023: Will Levis (33)

Hey Parker, how much slicing and dicing do you anticipate happening with this Broncos roster? Will a machete or another tool be used?

— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.

Hey Ed, great question. The Broncos could end up using a few different tools this offseason. Could be a machete. Could be a scalpel. Maybe they bring out the blowtorch, though that seems less likely. They’re also going to need a compass to navigate around the Wilson financial situation, however they decide to approach that.

Some teams are so far over the cap that they have to restructure, restructure, restructure all the way down the list. A year-after-year game of kick the can. The more you play it, the more you have to play it. New Orleans has been the preeminent example of this in recent years, but certainly not the only one.

Denver has the opportunity to avoid that fate, still. In fact, the Broncos can make relatively straightforward moves to get into cap compliance at the start of the league year, sign a modest free agent class and start to move their books toward being younger and more affordable. They can do all that without blowing up their roster, too, or setting it on a course for future cap hell. But it will take discipline.

It also makes the Broncos’ exact approach over the coming weeks a little more difficult to predict. Basically, they’re likely to do something with most of the following contracts: WR Tim Patrick, WR Courtland Sutton, LT Garett Bolles, DL D.J. Jones and S Justin Simmons. They could also make a move with WR Jerry Jeudy. Those six account for more than $97 million in cap space right now for 2024 and only Jeudy’s money is guaranteed. Denver can also create cap space relatively easily by restructuring with DL Zach Allen, LG Ben Powers or RT Mike McGlinchey. On those, ideally you want to start with the players you feel best about keeping for multiple seasons since you’re only moving cap charges into the future.

As you can see, there are multiple routes with most of these players. Simmons could bring back valuable capital in a trade but he should also be an extension candidate. Patrick could be back on a re-worked deal or could be cut. Sutton could end up traded, extended or mostly untouched this offseason contract-wise. Bolles is in a similar boat, though, given his age, trade or hold might be the two most likely options.

All of that is a long way of saying there are several important decisions to make and likely a variety of tools to be used.

So NFL.com ranked the Broncos’ 2023 draft class as the worst one in the league last year. Do you agree with that, even with Marvin Mims Jr.? I know we only had five picks. I’m still holding out faith that Drew Sanders and Riley Moss will improve in the coming years.

— Mark, Arvada

Hey Mark, thanks for writing in.

I’m not sure it matters whether they were last in rookie production or just in the bottom portion of the league. They got some nice contributions — obviously, Mims is already one of the best return men in the game and Moss turned into a good special teams player — but they were inarguably short on game-in, game-out production on offense and defense.

This shouldn’t be that big of a surprise, considering the Broncos had among the least 2023 draft capital. You just are not going to find a ton of instant impact guys when your first pick arrives in the 60s (for a second straight season, too).

Of the top four teams on NFL.com’s list, Houston and Pittsburgh took three players each before Denver’s first pick and Detroit took four. The Lions’ quartet in the first 45 picks — RB Jahmyr Gibbs, ILB Jack Campbell, TE Sam LaPorta and nickel Brian Branch — turned into four impact players.

Most of the time, when you’re talking about rounds three and on, you’re expecting some kind of need for development before making an impact. For better or worse, Payton was not going to be rushed into throwing Sanders and Moss onto the field.

If they each make a Nik Bonitto-like jump in production from Year 1 to Year 2, the Broncos will be happy. If Mims becomes a No. 2 receiver in addition to his return-game work, the Broncos will be happy.

But there’s also no doubt they need more impact players from the draft this spring.

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