Renck: Can Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix find instant success in Seattle? The numbers say no

Stats vs. Trust.

One of these variables will determine whether Bo Nix wins his debut on Sunday. And the numbers don’t add up.

I love the Broncos as a surprise team this season, but don’t like them in Week 1. When coach Sean Payton named Nix the starter, it made sense. He earned it. He is ready. Teammates believe in him.

Lost in the optimism is a sobering reality: There are few places worse for him to launch his career than Seattle.

So, when watching Nix become the first Broncos rookie to start the opener since John Elway in 1983, context matters. Elway won at Pittsburgh and completed one pass. He was benched.

That will not happen to Nix. But achieving success remains a daunting task. Prepare accordingly, Broncos Country. Replace your game day gum with Tums. And don’t make every pass a referendum on the kid’s career.

I refuse to give the easy take, but this is the honest take. The math says Nix needs a slight miracle. Coaches despise history when it fails to follow their narrative. The Broncos are young and fun, not burdened by their past or humps. This team, which echoes in my ears, has never lost in Seattle.

But many teams have when starting a rookie quarterback. Since Lumen Field opened in 2002 — three stadium names ago — rookies are 4-14. Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence are among the victims. This stadium isn’t loud. It is a Led Zeppelin concert.

And it spans multiple coaches and defenses. I have never covered a game in a more hostile setting than Russell Wilson’s return to Seattle to begin the 2022 season. The decibels and vitriol were a blend of the Premier League and Dante’s Inferno.

Yes, Nix is unique because of his college experience. And the last rookie to win in Seattle — Brock Purdy — featured a similar resume. The difference? He played for San Francisco, a team the Broncos will never be confused with.

Nix’s maturity, teammates insist, will prevent the Broncos from becoming Seasick. They trust him.

“There’s almost zero panic with him. That’s how he is,” starting center Luke Wattenberg said. “He’s calm, cool, collected. It’s a great energy to have in the huddle.”

Added receiver Courtland Sutton, “He carries himself like a leader. He doesn’t look at any stage as being too big for him.”

In another venue, another city, this would compel me to predict a win. I refuse to fall for the banana in the tailpipe. Not on the road. Not in Seattle.

The Broncos haven’t posted a road victory against the Seahawks since 2002. Brian Griese was the quarterback. Peyton Manning lost here, the offensive game plan oddly blown up when tight end Virgil Green suffered a concussion in the first series. Wilson lost here, playing decent, before coach Nathaniel Hackett filmed “Clueless in Seattle,” electing to kick a potential game-winning  64-yard field goal that nobody thought was funny.

Too many numbers scream that Nix’s first start deserves patience and perspective. Don’t get this confused. I am not baking in excuses for him. He has to show he can handle the moment, has to demonstrate that preseason was not a false positive. But that is something different entirely from defeating the Seahawks in this environment.

The last NFL rookie to win a Week 1 start was Sam Darnold in 2018. The quarterbacks are 0-7-1 since. Since the merger in 1967, rookies are 16-35-1 in openers.

In other words, they are the 2024 Rockies. Would you feel confident betting on them?

Complicating matters is new Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald. With his predecessor, Pete Carroll, you knew what to expect: an opportunistic defense with an aggressive secondary that camouflaged an inability to stop the run. Macdonald is known for his odd-man fronts and exotic blitzes. His Ravens defense tied for the league lead in takeaways last season. His personnel is not as talented in Seattle, which means his creativity will be on full display. Again, not ideal for Nix.

Rookies who have won at Lumen Field share common threads, namely not turning the ball over. And let’s be honest, for the Broncos to pull off the upset on the first stop of their revenge tour, it starts with running the ball. Nix has the cognitive ability to operate Payton’s offense, which will bend to the quarterback’s strengths. But a ground game is critical to helping him. Nothing forces fans to sit on their hands like a team that excels with its legs.

There is clearly a way to beat the Seahawks. They are nobody’s idea of a contender. But, sorry, history matters. Nix is going to win his share of games this season, but the numbers say his first victory won’t come Sunday in Seattle.

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