Broncos scouting report: How Denver matches up with Seattle Seahawks and predictions

Broncos at Seahawks

When: 2:05 p.m. MT, Sunday

Where: Lumen Field

Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS

Line: Seahawks -6.0

Broncos-Seahawks series: Denver is 35-20 in 55 regular-season games dating back to 1977; the Broncos lost 17-16 in the last meeting, on Sept. 12, 2022, in Seattle, and have lost three of the last four meetings against the Seahawks.

In the spotlight: Mike Macdonald’s time arrives in Seattle

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix might not be facing the Legion of Boom. But with first-year head coach Mike Macdonald at the helm, Seattle has a chance to develop into a formidable defense like years past.

Macdonald replaced longtime coach Pete Carroll after two seasons as the Ravens defensive coordinator. The 37-year-old’s quick rise to the head coaching ranks was hardly a surprise after Baltimore’s defense keyed the franchise’s return to the AFC Championship game in 2023.

The Ravens defense finished first in points allowed (16.5 per game), sixth in total defense (301.4 yards per game), and first in touchdowns allowed in the red zone (20).

One driver of the Ravens’ success was how often Macdonald’s defensive scheme applied pressure on quarterbacks. Each week, Macdonald gave teams different looks, making it hard for opposing offenses to know where pressure was coming from. The Ravens were first in sacks (60) and opponent passer rating (74.6) despite ranking 25th in blitz percentage (21.9%).

“You’re thinking it’s going to be cover zero or some sort of overload pressure and then they all bluff out. That’s the hardest thing,” Broncos offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said. “It’s a mixture of the same looks and dropping out, just rushing forward, blitzes and stuff. It definitely keeps you on your toes.”

The challenge for Macdonald is the change in personnel from Baltimore to Seattle. Macdonald doesn’t have inside linebacker Roquan Smith, defensive lineman Nnamdi Madubuike or safety Kyle Hamilton to work with anymore. Now, he has players like cornerbacks Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon, safety Julian Love and rookie defensive tackle Byron Murphy II.

He told reporters on Wednesday that Seattle is still searching for its defensive identity.

“You have to evolve (the whole season),” Macdonald said. “As you get to the middle of the season, you run out of change-ups, so you are looking at (what) are our tendencies now because this is what we are good at. But that’s not where we are at right now. We are trying to find our fastball.”

As Macdonald continues to learn his defense, so are the Broncos. This week, game-planning has been a challenge, with coaches jumping between Ravens defensive film and preseason stuff from the Seahawks.

Broncos coach Sean Payton said the team even looked back at Macdonald’s defenses from when he was at Michigan in 2021.

“There’s a lot of Baltimore in the cut-ups that we’re studying, and yet how much makes it in Year 1 into Seattle’s package? Only they would know that — not us,” Payton said. “They do a good job with disguise. They hold their disguises well. They create some challenges.”

Who has the edge?

When Broncos run
Denver was inconsistent in the run game last season. But with a lighter Javonte Williams, a more experienced Jaleel McLaughlin and the addition of rookie Audric Estime, the Broncos hope to have a better rushing attack this fall. The Seahawks’ run defense struggled last season, allowing at least 200 yards on the ground in three contests. Edge: Even

When Broncos pass
Bo Nix was sharp during preseason, completing 23 of 30 passes for 205 yards and a pair of touchdowns in two preseason games. However, he is no longer facing a lineup consisting of mostly backups, and playing at Lumen Field is no joke. The Seahawks have one of the best cornerback tandems in the league in Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon. Even with new personnel in Seattle, Mike Macdonald is a defensive mastermind and creative in finding ways to attack the quarterback. Edge: Seahawks

When Seahawks run
Denver’s run defense was a low light of 2023. Seattle, however, had one of the worst rushing attacks in the league in 2023 despite running back Kenneth Walker recording 905 yards. The Broncos have a chance for better results with the additions of defensive end John Franklin-Myers and lineman Malcolm Roach. Edge: Broncos

When Seahawks pass
Geno Smith, 33, has resurrected his career over the last two seasons. He made his second Pro Bowl appearance after throwing for 3,624 yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions last fall. Wide receiver D.K. Metcalf has recorded at least 1,000 receiving yards in three of the last five seasons. Meanwhile, second-year wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a young player with a ton of promise. Denver has arguably the best cornerback in the league, Pat Surtain II. But can Riley Moss establish himself as a quality starter after hardly playing as a rookie? Edge: Seahawks

Special teams
Last season, wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. made his first Pro Bowl appearance as a returner after totaling 397 yards and a touchdown on kickoffs and 312 on punt returns. Kicker Wil Lutz converted 88.2% of his field goal attempts. The Seahawks were 12th in punt return yards allowed (232). Seahawks kicker Jason Myers converted 83.3% of his field goal attempts. Edge: Broncos

Coaching
Sean Payton has the experience and a quarterback who fits what he is trying to accomplish on offense. Meanwhile, players feel they have a stronger understanding of how defensive coordinator Vance Joseph operates his defense. There are a few unknowns surrounding Macdonald’s coaching staff, especially with first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb–who doesn’t have any NFL coaching experience. Even though Mike Macdonald has different personnel in Seattle, he is still a defensive mastermind who can scheme up advantages. Edge: Broncos

Tale of the tape

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*Stats from 2023

By the numbers

61: Career college starts for Broncos quarterback Bo Nix

36: Number of passes defended by Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II since 2021.

160: Number of career wins for Broncos’ Sean Payton entering his 17th season as an NFL head coach.

8.5: Number of sacks by Broncos outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper in 2023, the most of any player on the team.

774: Number of rushing yards by Broncos running back Javonte Williams in 2023.

Bet on it

Sutton over 4.5 receptions: Courtland Sutton is Denver’s clear-cut No. 1 receiver. Expect quarterback Bo Nix to rely on him heavily in his rookie debut. Last season, former Denver quarterback Russell Wilson did the same, especially in the red zone. During training camp and preseason, Nix and Sutton strengthened their chemistry and appeared to find a connection in the middle of the field. That should translate on Sunday and throughout the season.

Nix’s longest pass under 32.5 yards: Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said Nix has more arm talent than most people give him credit for. Even though Nix can throw the deep ball, he wasn’t asked to do it at Oregon. In 2023, 38.8% of Nix’s pass attempts were fewer than 10 yards, according to Pro Football Focus. Meanwhile, 19.5% of his passes were between 10 and 19 yards, and 10.9% were 20-plus yards. Even during the Broncos’ practice this summer, the majority of Nix’s throws were short and intermediate throws. It’s a safe bet Nix’s longest throw will be under 32 yards, as he tries to keep the ball out of harm’s way.

Post predictions

Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Seahawks 17, Broncos 16

The Broncos have lost their last two season openers by this score, including one at Lumen Field. So why not another? OK, that’s a bit tongue-in-cheek, but this has the feel of a feel-out game. Denver is trying to learn what it has in Bo Nix, and Seattle is going out under head coach Mike Macdonald for the first time. The Broncos cover, but start 0-1 for a fifth time in six years.

Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Seahawks 21, Broncos 20

History will not be on Bo Nix’s side on Sunday. Rookie quarterbacks are 0-7-1 in Week 1 in the last five seasons. Nix will put up modest numbers in his debut but it won’t be enough to beat the Seahawks in a hostile environment. Mike Macdonald earns his first win as a head coach but Denver will leave Seattle optimistic about Nix’s ability as a starter.

Troy Renck, columnist: Seahawks 23, Broncos 20

The Broncos have been energized by young players and rookie quarterback Bo Nix. There is every reason to believe they will use their underdog status to overachieve this season. It just won’t be in the opener at Seattle. Too many numbers suggest that even if Nix plays well, the Broncos will lose.

Sean Keeler, columnist: Seahawks 23, Broncos 20

Welcome to the Big Show, Bo Nix! For all the chatter about Seattle tailback Kenneth Walker III vs. the Broncos’ run defense, that’s not what nags you. What nags you is what happens when Geno Smith realizes he’s got DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett or Smith-Njigba isolated 1-on-1 against Riley Moss. Or just starts looking for wherever Moss happens to be and decides he’ll take his chances. If the Broncos hold up their end at CB2, they can hang. But that’s a massive, Godzilla-sized “if.” Especially when you can’t hear yourself think.

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