Nuggets Mailbag: What happens if Denver doesn’t meet expectations again in 2024-25 season?

Denver Post beat writer Bennett Durando opens up the Nuggets Mailbag periodically during the season (and now, the offseason). You can submit a Nuggets- or NBA-related question here.

Bennett, which games do you have circled on the Nuggets schedule this year?

— Daniel, Sloans Lake

I’ll give you five since you asked so nicely (and because I was on vacation when the schedule was released). Let’s start with the obvious: Jan. 21, 2025. That’s the day the 76ers come to town. This game guarantees intrigue and entertainment regardless of what happens with the elephant in the room. If Joel Embiid plays, it’ll be his first time facing Denver on Nikola Jokic’s home turf since Nov. 8, 2019. If he doesn’t play, the peanut gallery will relish every second of it. Ball Arena will be uproarious. Either way, great theater. (My favorite scheduling tidbit: Inauguration Day is Jan. 20, meaning the NBA has guaranteed that an entire American presidency begins and ends without Embiid playing in Denver.)

2. The Grizzlies are the wildest wild card in the league after the high peaks and low valleys of the last two years. And the Nuggets get to visit them on Beale Street for an NBA Cup (in-season tournament) clash early in the season. I couldn’t make this list without highlighting at least one game that’ll be played on a goofy court, and this one is the most fascinating to me. Ja Morant back from the dead, just in time for the Group of Death.

3. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes his return to Denver on Feb. 6. It’s a tasty matchup even before factoring in what’s sure to be a tear-jerking tribute video. The Magic swept the Nuggets last season, and the last two meetings between these teams in Denver have both been memorable. Paolo Banchero scored 32 points in his first career triple-double to lead an 18-point comeback last January, ending with Jamal Murray’s last-second miss. The year before, Jokic sank a game-winning 3 with 1.2 ticks left. Orlando is intent on leveling up in the East now with KCP’s guidance.

4. Denver plays a back-to-back series in Oklahoma City, March 9 and 10. Major litmus test a couple of weeks after the All-Star break. The way I see it, the Thunder deserve to be clear preseason favorites to win the West, unlike last year when it felt like they were still in the early stages of their rise, punching above their weight class to hang with Denver in the standings. The Nuggets are back to being underdogs this season, in this matchup at minimum. The back-to-back also takes place during a grueling, make-or-break stretch of the schedule, surrounded by the Celtics, Kings, Suns, Timberwolves and Lakers.

5. Another back-to-back, Jan. 3 and 4 against the Spurs. After the first game in Denver, both teams fly to San Antonio. I for one have my fingers crossed the Nuggets bring Jokic along for Round 2 because it would be devastating to deprive basketball fans of a single Joker vs. Wemby battle from now on.

While the Nuggets got one championship out of the current ownership-GM-coach setup, there seems to always be a 5-10% simmer of conflict between the three dealing with salaries, roster-building and playing time. … Another season of not reaching the expected potential will bring about what: Malone or Booth gone? Trading assets (anyone not including Jokic)? Or more patience and retooling for next season?

— John Steichen, Fort Collins

Ah, the paradoxical question that obsesses every sports fan about his or her team. You pose it while hoping it will never be answered.

Seeing as this is awfully hypothetical and premature for a team that views itself as a top-tier championship contender, I can only give you educated guesswork, not reporting. My sense is that sweeping change would be more likely than complete static if the 2024-25 season went awry. What changes, exactly? Nothing you suggested is impossible, once you wrap your head around the notion that Jokic is the most essential person to any team in the league right now. By that logic, he’s also the only truly immovable object in the Nuggets’ organization.

This is a cutthroat league. Think about Milwaukee, another small market franchise that was lifted to the pinnacle by a transcendent European star. Two summers later, the coach was fired and a player from the championship core was traded. It all started with a second-round Game 7 loss the year after the Bucks won the title. Even in the underdog cities, patience runs thin.

All that being said, I have a hard time envisioning the Nuggets finishing lower than fourth in the West this season, barring major injuries. With a team this good, hot seats are usually a topic reserved for the playoffs, so I don’t see this as an imminent issue. Michael Malone is tenured and beloved in Denver, and Josh Kroenke hasn’t hesitated to speak highly of general manager Calvin Booth in the recent past.

From the outside looking in, it seems Booth and Malone are not aligned. Case in point is Zeke Nnaji. I read that Booth said Nnaji was drafted as a 4 and we (Malone?) tried to make him a small 5, and it hasn’t worked. It seems like Booth still talks as if Nnaji has value, but then he drafts Holmes who he says is a 4 all day. Two questions … Where do you think Booth stands on Nnaji? Are Booth and Malone not in sync on the direction to play youth?

— Michael, Denver

I don’t think it’s any secret that Malone is often reluctant to give extended runway to young players. Booth has placed a clear emphasis on the draft, out of necessity from his perspective. Malone has addressed this friction in his own words. “As a coach, I’m thinking, ‘How do we win the next game?’ That’s my job,” he said after the season. “Calvin, as a GM, is thinking about, ‘How do we win the next couple of years?’ That’s his job.”

Translation: A little tension is inherent and healthy in the working relationship between a coach and GM. Fair enough. It’s just a matter of whether the Nuggets can locate the proper balance. Nnaji might be an example that they haven’t fully accomplished that yet. Doesn’t mean they can’t.

From a game-to-game standpoint during the season, that balance rests on Malone’s shoulders. With DaRon Holmes II injured, there will be no rookie playing time for him to manage this season unlike the last two, perhaps a silver lining for a lousy situation. Instead, this year it’s more about Malone’s approach to expanding players’ roles: Christian Braun to the starting lineup (potentially), Julian Strawther to the rotation, Peyton Watson to the playoff rotation.

As for Nnaji, Booth has been clear that he still believes in him. But the contract obviously looks terrible right now. I think the best Denver can hope for is an enhancement of Nnaji’s trade value early this season — which, of course, requires playing time.

Thank you, Bennett, for your excellent insight to our beloved Nuggets. I know there is much debate about whether or not MPJ is worth his max contract and if he should be traded. I’m wondering what his next contract looks like if he continues to play like he has the past few years (solid offensive option and on the defensive glass while providing little defensively.) If he stays on this trajectory, do you think the Nuggets would offer him another max contract, or something more in line with the kind of contract Aaron Gordon has now? And would MPJ take that? What are your thoughts? Thanks!

— Eric, Parker

Depends on the market for him, right? If Porter makes it to the end of his current contract without getting traded, and suitors aren’t lining up to offer him a second max in free agency, then he might not have a choice but than to accept something less. I think a lot of teams are feeling stingier by necessity about giving out that type of contract right now, with the new CBA guardrails in place.

Based on that logic alone, I think MPJ is a case where it wouldn’t hurt the Nuggets to wait, rather than sign him as soon as he’s extension-eligible. It’s also relevant context that Denver’s current general manager is not the same GM who signed Porter to a max deal the first time.

There are still three years left on the current contract, so a lot can happen before 2027. Everything I hear is that Porter is a relentlessly hard worker when it comes to his body; maybe by then, his injury history is behind him and he’s one of the best shooters in the league without an asterisk. Or maybe the past keeps haunting him. Maybe he’ll be traded before 2027. It’s tough to project his future right now.

Are any local press traveling to Abu Dhabi with the team?

— Grace, Oakland

Let’s just say I’ve been researching neck pillows in my free time lately.

Looking ahead, who do you see having the better season at Ball Arena? The Nuggets and Avs are stacked and ready to make postseason runs again, but my money is on the Avs with Gabe Landeskog making his return. Seems like too many unknowns with the Nuggets rotation.

— Rip, Aurora

Someone always asks me a Nuggets-Avalanche comparison question. This one’s a coin flip, honestly. I’d push back on your point about the Nuggets’ unknowns by saying those are mostly deeper in the rotation, whereas Landeskog and Val Nichushkin are still the two biggest, most expensive unknowns in Denver sports right now (unless you count the buyout money Deion Sanders will owe CU once Florida State has an opening in December).

The West is so good in the NBA that I’d lean toward the Avs having a better regular season. But I’ll always maintain the Stanley Cup Playoffs can be especially cruel or fluky. The Nuggets have a better chance to reach their Finals.

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