Nuggets Journal: With KCP out, Russell Westbrook in, is Denver’s 3-point arsenal as dire as it seems?

How many 3-pointers does it take for an NBA team to raise a banner?

The Nuggets will test the limits of that question. The focal point of their controversial 2024 offseason was the forfeiture of free agent Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a valuable 3-and-D guard who started almost every game the last two seasons and shot 41.5% from 3-point range. Adding to the apprehension was Denver’s acquisition of Russell Westbrook — a no-doubt Hall of Famer, but also more of a floor-condenser than floor-spacer.

Twelve of the last 13 NBA champions ranked in the top 10 in 3-point percentage during the regular season. (The one exception was the 2020 bubble Lakers, perhaps more of a commentary on how weird that season was.) Eight of those title-winning teams ranked in the top five. Emphasis on the 3-pointer inflated more than any world economy after the emergence of Steph Curry. The Celtics took the trend to new extremes last season by attempting 603 more 3s than the league average.

The Nuggets’ formula in recent years has been low volume, high efficiency. They ranked fourth in the NBA in 3-point percentage and 25th in attempts the year they won the title. Both of those rankings took a hit during the 2023-24 season, but the principle was unchanged. They were still 10th in percentage at 37.4%, teetering on the edge of what qualifies for modern championship legitimacy, but their 2,560 attempts were the fewest in the league.

As the second-most recent champs, they represent a stylistic antithesis to Boston.

Still, even for a team that has seemingly managed to transcend the trend of spamming 3s, the math can’t be neglected. What is the state of Denver’s arsenal entering 2024-25?

In shedding Caldwell-Pope, Reggie Jackson and Justin Holiday, the Nuggets are losing 728 of their regular-season attempts — more than 28% of them. Those three players combined to shoot the 3 at a 38.7% clip. Remove their numbers, and the new team percentage is 36.9%, which would’ve ranked 14th in the league.

That means the Nuggets need to regain at least some of the lost contributions, via returners or newcomers. Start with the latter. Based on 2023-24 stats, they’ve added back 351 combined 3-point attempts this summer between Westbrook and Dario Saric — bringing the net loss to 377 attempts. Denver won’t necessarily want Westbrook shooting a ton of 3s anyway; the two free-agent acquisitions combined for a 33% mark last season, a number heightened by Saric.

So to take the hypothetical team percentage a step further: If you replace the three departing players’ production last season with Saric’s and Westbrook’s, Denver’s new 3-point percentage comes out to 36.3% as a team. That would have ranked 19th.

This is all over-simplified, obviously. A player’s output can be a product of circumstance. Of his role within a system. Of his teammates. That much was evident with Jackson. He shot 44.3% from 3-point range in 23 games as a starter last season, when Denver needed him to replace Jamal Murray. In 59 games off the bench, he was a 31.6% shooter. The Nikola Jokic Effect is good for at least some of that massive gap. It’s encouraging that Saric (37.6% overall) shot 43% on wide-open 3s last season and 38.1% off the catch (the vast majority of his attempts).

As for Westbrook? Even if the Nuggets maximize his minutes alongside Jokic and the three-time MVP works his magic — elevating another teammate’s game just by existing in the same orbit — improved 3-point shooting probably won’t be the area where that takes effect.

More than 70% of Westbrook’s 3-point attempts last season were designated as wide-open, because opponents wanted it that way. He still made only 27.5% of those shots with the closest defender stationed 6 or more feet away — consistent with his overall 27.3% percentage. Jokic’s teammates are still responsible for cashing in on the open looks he provides them.

Russ is in Denver for other reasons. Not that.

So shift your gaze to the returners. (We’re skipping over draftee DaRon Holmes II, who’s out for the year in a stroke of terrible luck.) Any optimistic outlook on the 3-point arsenal needs to mention Vlatko Cancar, who’s also a newcomer in a sense. He missed all of last season with a torn ACL, after attempting a career-high 115 outside shots (37.4%) in his most recent healthy season. Regaining his 2022-23 productivity would be a notable boost. But is that realistic to expect? Cancar’s increased volume two years ago was largely a result of opportunity. His previous career-high for 3-point attempts in a season was 33.

If the Nuggets use a nine-man rotation in 2024-25, Cancar is likely not part of it. He’s certainly behind Westbrook, Saric, Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson. And it’s up for debate whether he or Zeke Nnaji will be the 10th man. There’s more at stake for Denver with Nnaji’s development as his new contract begins. But if floor spacing is a top priority, Cancar might be more of a necessity. At any rate, it’s not a given that he’ll play enough to shoot 37% on triple-digit attempts. He also struggled dramatically during international play this summer. (More on that topic soon.)

The roster decisions Denver made this summer were widely interpreted as a big bet on the organization’s youth. Shooting is a vital aspect of that. Christian Braun is already on an ideal trajectory after his 38.4% sophomore season. Watson was 29.6% overall, but unlike Westbrook, he has a reason for confidence if he’s slightly more selective. He was 37.7% on his wide-open 3s. He’s still young. And he seems to have a balance of shot-making potential off the dribble and the catch.

Strawther looms over this entire discussion as the returning player about to make the biggest leap. He was drafted to be a spot-up sniper but shot just 29.7% as a rookie, despite a handful of electrifying heat checks. Developing his consistency is a clear X-factor. It’s a lot of pressure for a 22-year-old picked late in the first round.

All this roster movement makes it easy to overlook the core, where continuity remains a strength. The same two players have led the Nuggets in 3-point attempts the last two seasons — a distinction shared by only five other teams. And unlike three of those teams, Denver’s duo remains intact.

Murray and Michael Porter Jr. combined for 35% of Denver’s attempts in 2022-23 and 2023-24. They combined to make their 40.7% of those shots (725 for 1,781). Only the Warriors got better efficiency from their two highest-volume 3-point shooters during that two-year span (40.8%), and Klay Thompson is no longer in Golden State as of July.

The confluence of Murray and Porter’s respective injury recoveries was the setup for Denver’s championship season. They are the two most essential perimeter cogs in an offense that functions around Jokic. That was always the case, with or without Caldwell-Pope.

Losing KCP increases the pressure on their durability if anything. One injury to Murray or Porter, and the floor-spacing could start to shrink. It’s already clear that Murray’s shooting is prone to plummet if he plays while hurt. He shot 14% from 3-point range during the Paris Olympics, part of the Nuggets’ ominous trend on the international stage. Cancar was 1 for 14 (7%) in Slovenia’s Olympic Qualifying Tournament. Even Jokic, who led the Olympics in points, rebounds, assists and steals, suddenly couldn’t buy a basket beyond the arc. He was 17%.

That’s a lot of baggage entering training camp for a franchise that’s already in danger of 3-point regression due to its offseason choices. The foundation of Denver’s low-volume, high-efficiency identity is still there, but it’s thinner.

The 29th-ranked team in attempts last season?

The Orlando Magic — a team that’s trying to remedy that with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

Shooting stars

The Nuggets are one of six NBA teams with the same two leaders in 3-point attempts each of the last two seasons. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. have combined for a 40.7% clip during that time. How does that efficiency compare to other teams’ most relied-upon 3-point shooters between the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons? Here’s a look:

(Can’t see chart on mobile? Click here.)

* All players still with team | NBA rank in parenthesis | Source: Basketball-Reference.com

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