Avalanche Journal: Without significant trade, it could be quiet start to Colorado’s offseason

LAS VEGAS — It’s becoming clearer that without trading a significant player off the current roster, it could be a pretty quiet week ahead for the Colorado Avalanche.

The Avs signed Casey Mittelstadt to a three-year contract to kickstart their offseason. They can sign Mikko Rantanen to a long-term extension for the 2025-26 season and beyond once the calendar flips to July.

But the math is the math, and the Avs don’t have room below the salary cap ceiling to make a big addition to the 2024-25 roster without removing someone who was important in 2023-24. That includes bringing back Jonathan Drouin, something the player and team both want but the salary cap just might not allow.

“It’s a challenging one,” general manager Chris MacFarland said. “We are cap-challenged, so there’s those competing factors. Both parties want to get it done, but finding that sweet spot is the challenge.”

The cap ceiling is set at $88 million for next season. With Mittelstadt signed, the Avs are nearly out of room to add players who make anything beyond the league minimum. If we include Nikolai Kovalenko, Sam Malinski and Jean-Luc Foudy, plus three players on veteran minimum contracts to fill out the lineup, the Avs are left with less than $400,000 in cap space.

There is a path to more space that doesn’t involve trading someone off the current roster, but it comes with an asterisk. Valeri Nichushkin’s $6.125 million cap hit will not count toward the $88 million ceiling for as long as he’s suspended, which is until at least mid-November.

Once he’s reinstated by the NHL, the Avs would need to get back down below the $88 million limit. If they had a player who needs to go on long-term injured reserve, it could be another temporary solution, but the most likely fix would be a trade.

At least as of Friday night, that did not sound like a plan that enticed MacFarland.

“You really can’t go over $88 (million),” he said. “There are sort of two tracks that you go on. Last year, we knew (Gabe Landeskog) was out for the year. This year, thankfully, we don’t know that. … We know Val’s going to be reinstated at some point, assuming everything goes good, which obviously that’s what we’re hoping for for him and for us. At some point in November, it’s not like we can go and spend $6 million and then go, ‘OK, we got to get rid of $6 million’ three weeks into the season. That’s not how it works.

“It’s not simple to create those escape hatches. And most teams when they know you need to do something, it’s not the best situation to be in.”

Drouin was a wonderful story this past season, a great candidate for comeback player of the year if such an NHL award existed. He quickly fit in the with club and eventually became an integral player.

He set a career high with 56 points and became a trusted two-way player for coach Jared Bednar who could play on the top line with his buddy Nathan MacKinnon or away from him on the second line.

There’s no question that the reigning NHL MVP wants his friend back. MacKinnon called Drouin his favorite he’s ever had shortly after collecting the Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award on Thursday night.

“Quite a bit,” MacKinnon said when asked if he and Drouin had been discussing the future lately. “… It’s no secret that I love the guy. I love playing with him. Everybody on the team loved him, but I get it, though. It’s business and he’s got to do what’s best for him. He’s got a couple kids, a wife, everything. I’m hoping it works out, though.”

If the Avs don’t move another roster player, Drouin will certainly be able to secure a better contract on the open market. It will also likely leave the club searching for bargains once the market opens Monday morning.

The Avs will be looking for players similar to Drouin a year ago, either recently bought out of a contract or someone whose recent past did not go well and is looking for a short-term “show me” deal to help rebuild their value.

The NHL’s bargain bin is an unpredictable place to shop, but the Avs have been one of the best clubs at identifying players of that ilk who can help. It could also mean Colorado’s additions don’t come until later in the offseason, away from the flurry of July 1 signings.

It will also likely make the Avs an unknown when training camp approaches. Put healthy versions of Nichushkin and Landeskog into a lineup that still includes arguably the best core in the NHL, and by midseason Colorado could be one of the league’s best teams.

What the Avs will actually get from Landeksog and Nichushkin this season is obviously a huge unknown. There’s no way to know right now, and if MacFarland and his staff aren’t willing to take the (potentially substantial) risk of blowing past the cap ceiling now and figuring it out later, it could be a waiting game on multiple levels.

“I think honestly we’re really close,” MacKinnon said. “I really think that. Dallas played great against us and we were right there. Just couldn’t get it going. Couldn’t get our mojo going at home, which after our (regular season) home record it was ironic how bad we were at home for whatever reason. We have to fix that a year from now and just keep building, but I think our team is a championship-caliber team.”

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