Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.
Is it safe to Buy a Bo Nix jersey? Fans wanna know because of the revolving QB door we seem to have.
— Maria England, Phoenix
Thanks for getting us going this week, Maria. Do you have the shirt Sean Payton referenced with all the Broncos quarterbacks and their names crossed off?
There’s risk in buying almost anybody’s jersey these days. You’d have answered this question in the affirmative, strongly, just two years ago for Russell Wilson. Nix is going to get a lot of time, energy and resources put into his development and Payton and the Broncos clearly believe in him. And, hey, either way it’ll be a collectors item. Or something like that.
Of course, the question now is what number will Nix wear? He was No. 10 in college, but that was announced as Zach Wilson’s number after the trade. What if he wore No. 0? Or perhaps he can convince Tremon Smith to give up No. 1? Or perhaps this is more of an organizational decision: Bo Nix is the first-round draft pick and he’s getting No. 10. Sorry Zach. No. 16 will look great on you. Here’s a gift card to Shanahan’s for your troubles.
Might the Broncos be asking for trouble and a quarterback controversy by having Bo Nix and Zach Wilson on the roster simultaneously?
— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.
Hey Ed, thanks for writing in. Aside from the jersey number thing, there’s no trouble in having Wilson and Nix on the roster together. It could create a very interesting preseason camp come late July and a competition between those two and Jarrett Stidham. But I don’t see why it would cause trouble. There is usually some truth, though, to the truism about the position: If you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks. That’s not always true, but often it is with a competition like this one.
That’s no knock, either. The Broncos have made it clear the entire offseason up to this point that they didn’t think they had a surefire guy and they spent months looking for one. Now it’s more about not knowing if they have the guy and who that guy is. The most likely candidate is probably Nix. Maybe Wilson undergoes a massive transformation playing for Payton, but if we’re setting odds, are you taking that or Nix as a serviceable-to-good starter early in his career?
Parker, who do you think will be our starter at QB in Week 1? And what do you think the Broncos QB room will look like this fall? Bo Nix is a given whether he starts or not, but do you think Zach Wilson can beat out Jarrett Stidham?
— Mike, Denver
OK, carrying along the same line of thinking, Mike.
Let’s preface this all with the obvious: Two of these three guys have never actually practiced in a Broncos uniform yet. There is plenty of time for a competition to sort itself out.
All the same, the starting point might still be instructive. So, let’s run through it.
The argument for Nix playing right away is pretty straightforward. You drafted him No. 12 overall. He’s got a good number of veterans around him and an offensive line that’s mostly intact from last year. The one guy who’s not back is center Lloyd Cushenberry, and his replacement could end up being Alex Forsyth, one of Nix’s college centers. Not only that, but Nix started an FBS-record 61 college games. He’s 24 years old. He’s only green in the NFL sense and the only way to not be NFL green is to play. The reality is there’s also not a ton of expectation on the Broncos this year and if Nix doesn’t play extensively, he doesn’t grow into 2025 when most of Russell Wilson’s money will be off the books and Denver will have more flexibility.
Of course, none of that matters much if he doesn’t engender confidence among the coaches and his teammates between now and September. He’ll get plenty of chances to do just that.
Stidham and Wilson each have advantages and disadvantages from where they start. Stidham’s biggest is that he’s been in the system for a year already and has a big lead in terms of understanding the hows, whats and whys of playing quarterback for Sean Payton. Wilson has the raw ability that made him the No. 2 overall pick just three years ago.
Then, of course, there’s the money conversation. The Broncos are paying about half of Wilson’s $5.5 million guaranteed salary this year and, according to OvertheCap, has a cap number of $2.73 million. That’s all guaranteed, so Denver’s paying it (and counting that number against its cap) regardless of what happens.
Stidham has a $7 million cap number but only $1 million in guaranteed money for this year. Cutting him would leave $2 million dead on Denver’s books but clear $5 million in space. Advantage to Wilson in that department, but we’re not talking about the type of money that has to be a deciding factor. Just, it could matter if the race is close.
Remember, too, that the NFL instituted a rule change that allows practice squad quarterbacks to be elevated for game day as many times as a team wants this fall as long as he counts as one of your maximum two game-day elevations. That further reduces the incentive for teams to keep three quarterbacks on their 53-man rosters. Not to say the Broncos couldn’t keep all three, but Payton historically hasn’t.
Our new third-round pick — Jonah Elliss from Utah — will he be expected to take over Josey Jewell’s MLB position/responsibility?
— Michael Good, Wichita, Kan.
Hey Michael, that’s an interesting thought but the bet here is that Elliss will play on the edge from the start. The Broncos like his pass-rush ability and think he can hold up against the run even though he’s not the biggest at 6-foot-2 and 248 pounds.
The wrinkle here, though, is whether Elliss’ selection bumps Drew Sanders back to the middle full-time. Elliss would make a four-man rotation with Baron Browning, Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto on the edge. Denver also has a couple of guys in Ronnie Perkins and Thomas Incoom who spent time on the 53-man roster last year and should at least be in the mix again this summer.
Sanders, meanwhile, was originally drafted as an inside linebacker — Payton has called both Sanders and Elliss “pressure players” — but he ended up playing some on the edge down the stretch. The question is if Sanders bumps back to the middle now or if he stays on the edge. In the middle, he’d compete to play alongside Alex Singleton with Jonas Griffith and Cody Barton primarily. That looks like his better route to having a big role, but he has to show he can play in the middle of the field.
Aside from Bo Nix, which one of our draft picks has the best chance at making the biggest impact in 2024?
— Reagan R., Aurora
Reagan, thanks for writing in and a great question. We’ll probably have a better idea by the end of minicamp in mid-June but obviously the fullest picture will be a few weeks into August.
Let’s put them in a couple of buckets: Elliss probably has the cleanest role. He’s joining three other OLBs in a room that really needs another contributor. But if all four are healthy he’s probably playing a subset of snaps.
The depth chart picture is a little muddier at present for Audric Estime, but you don’t draft a running back in the middle rounds anymore unless you think he’s going to have a big impact. If Javonte Williams is fully healthy, he’ll be in the mix, obviously. Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin each carved roles for themselves last year. But if Estime is ready to roll, he’s going to.
Franklin has the upside. There are veterans on the roster ahead of him currently in Courtland Sutton and Josh Reynolds plus other options like Marvin Mims Jr., Brandon Johnson, etc. But his talent is clear and if he makes an impact, it could be a big one.
The widest variance is Kris Abrams-Draine. He could end up being just a special teams guy and a reserve, but he’s got a chance to jump into a wide-open battle for the job opposite Pat Surtain II and he’s doing it for a new position coach in Jim Leonhard, who will be treating everybody as if they have a clean slate. Is he the fifth corner and a back-of-the-roster guy? Or is he maybe a starter? That will be a fascinating battle the rest of the spring and summer.
I’m a little surprised we didn’t go after a tight end in the draft. Greg Dulcich’s been bitten with the injury bug and our other tight ends don’t strike me as offensive threats.
And any early guesses if any of our undrafted rookie free agents get a roster spot?
— Matt Sullivan, Colorado Springs
Yeah, Matt, same here. One interesting thing Payton said: At the end of each draft day there are a few guys you know are going early the next day. Denver moved up to take Franklin with Saturday’s second pick (No. 102 overall). The guy that went No. 101, Texas TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, was also surprisingly available. Wonder if they’d have made a similar move up in the event that Carolina had taken Franklin.
The Broncos really need either Greg Dulcich or Lucas Krull to produce this fall. Dulcich has the talent, but he’s got to stay healthy. If he does, look out. But it’s a big if at this point. Krull has some promise, but a lot of refinement left to be a bona fide difference-maker. It’ll also be interesting to see how Nate Adkins develops in Year 2. He’s probably not going to suddenly be a weapon up the seam and in the passing game, but he had a nice rookie season as an undrafted guy and has room to grow.
One of the best parts about rookie minicamp — coming up in a couple weeks — is getting a first crack at seeing the undrafted guys. McLaughlin and Adkins both stood out last year. Brandon Johnson the year before that. But there’s also always some surprises, too.
The first step is to follow the money, but that does get blown out of proportion sometimes. The guarantees given to players like RB Blake Watson, S Omar Brown and Wyoming OL Frank Crum don’t necessarily mean they’re going to make the 53-man roster. It does mean, however, that they’ve been evaluated as strong bets for the practice squad at least. So start there and then let’s see what the other guys can do. Positionally, you’d think there’d be room for DL Jaylon Allen, ILB Levelle Bailey and CB Quinton Newsome to make some noise.
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