Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.
Hello from Finland! If the Broncos trade down and take Michael Penix Jr., what could they gain pick-wise? And how many turns would it be “safe” to trade down?
— Jude, Lahti, Finland
Yo Jude, thanks for writing in as always and for getting us going this week. Great question. As with most things, the ultimate answer is that you get what the market offers in situations like this.
We have several tools on how to value draft picks, but the Broncos’ trade-down options from No. 12 center largely on who’s available at that point and how many teams want to come up? Maybe the most interesting scenario is, what if the Broncos stay at No. 12 and when that pick comes up, Georgia tight end Brock Bowers and Penn State tackle Olu Fashanou are still on the board? That might convince a team that they have an opportunity to come up and get a player they view as special. Or it could be somebody else, obviously. But that could also make the Broncos more tempted to just stay and take that player, too.
As for what the actual pick is worth, take the Jimmy Johnson chart as one example. The trades that Sean Payton has historically made in the draft track generally along the lines of the Johnson chart.
In terms of straight numeric value, that means trading back anywhere past 17 would require something equating low-end second-round value in return. To hit the midpoint of the second round (No. 48 overall), you’d have to go back to the early 20s.
Of course, it also takes a team that has picks you want and also wants to move up. Just for kicks, here are a handful that line up closely on the Johnson chart without any consideration for team needs, other picks and any number of other factors that come into play.
The Broncos’ No. 12 is valued at 1,200 points.
Philadelphia’s No. 22 and No. 50 add up to 1,180
Seattle’s No. 16 and No. 81 (third-round) add up to 1,185
Green Bay’s No. 25 and No. 41 add up to 1,210
Arizona’s No. 27 and No. 35 add up to 1,230
Pittsburgh’s No. 20 and No. 51 add up to 1,240
There’s so much talk about the Broncos needing to move up in the draft and basically mortgaging our future — again — for a quarterback. We’re not going to be good this year, so why not try and build a quality foundation of younger talent? We desperately lack talent on this team and we can’t get better until we acquire some. Giving up future first-rounders isn’t the answer. What about trading down our No. 12 pick for more assets? We have plenty of holes we have to fill.
— Phil B., Denver
Yeah, Phil, I don’t disagree. Some of the math on moving down is above. You could also make an argument that, if there’s really a run on four or more quarterbacks at the top of the draft, a real impact player might be sitting right there at No. 12. Would you rather have an extra second-rounder or Georgia tight end Brock Bowers? An extra second-rounder or maybe a decade-long answer at left tackle? As general manager George Paton said last week at the NFL’s spring ownership meetings in Orlando, there’s going to be a really good player available at No. 12.
Every time that conversation sparks up, though, the easy counter is this: What does it matter if you don’t have an answer at quarterback? Totally get the roster-building idea and agree. The Broncos need a couple years here with a bunch of picks and a good hit rate. If you get a chance to settle the quarterback position, though, it’s got to be done. So the balance is making that happen without forcing the issue with somebody you don’t truly believe in.
With the offseason being all about who’s going to be our next starting quarterback, has there been much talk about bringing in another former Colts QB? How about Andrew Luck? I know he hasn’t played in six years, but he’s still just 34.
— Mark, Arvada
Hey Mark, interesting thought. Don’t think that’s going to happen. Luck said in March — in an interview in Japan, randomly — ”You don’t even have to finish the question. No, not in my life.”
Sean Payton did cause the ears to perk up a little bit in Orlando when he said the Broncos still had options on the market at quarterback, “relative to guys who are currently in this league or have played in this league.”
Maybe the second part was just Payton talking. Or maybe there’s somebody out there. Tom Brady! Phil Rivers! Drew Brees! Maybe Matt Ryan wants to come out of retirement and play with his cousin, Mike McGlinchey.
Those range between far-fetched and impossible for their own reasons. Brady because he’s well into the process of buying a stake in the Las Vegas Raiders. Brees because he’s said he can’t even throw a ball with his right hand anymore. So on and so forth.
We’re going to sign another quarterback, right? We’re sitting here with just Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci on our roster with the possibility of drafting one next month. That surely can’t be it.
— Paul Smith, Colorado Springs
Paul, thanks for writing in. Yes, the Broncos will add another quarterback. It’ll be a stunner if they start training camp in late July with Stidham and DiNucci and an arm from rookie minicamp or something like that.
At this point, though, there’s no reason to force it before the draft. There are still several different avenues available. One that’s on the board but hasn’t been talked about a ton: The Broncos get going in the draft but they don’t like the way the board falls. Maybe they use No. 76 or trade back slightly from there and use that pick to try to pry Jake Browning away from Cincinnati. Heck, maybe they get into Day 3 and they are actually able to collect a pick from the New York Jets for taking Zach Wilson and his 2024 salary.
If they’re mining the post-draft free agency market, veteran Ryan Tannehill comes to mind as a potential option.
So far the approach has been trying to find a long-term solution at quarterback. It didn’t happen in free agency, so most of the attention is now on the draft. At some point, especially depending on how the first round or two go, the conversation could shift to filling out the room rather than fixing it.
In your opinion, were all of the new NFL rule changes necessary? And if not, which ones could have waited or should never be considered again? And with the NFL’s adoption of the new kickoff rules, who currently on the Broncos roster is the kick returner? Or might Denver need to draft or sign players to fit that specific need?
— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.
Good question, Ed. It was indeed a busy year on the rules front for the NFL. The hip-drop tackle ban and kickoff change got the most publicity and for good reason. I definitely hear the players’ concerns about the hip-drop tackle and think it’s going to be a mess to try to officiate in real time. What the league is likely to do is instruct officials to only call it in flagrant situations and then they’ll try to adjudicate it out of the game by fining players after the fact.
The kickoff rule is going to be a fun experiment. The more prudent way to go would have been to test it in the preseason for a year, but the NFL decided instead to just roll it out for a season. If it gets really bonkers, maybe they’ll nix it for the playoffs But it should be exciting. And it’s a great question about who the returner is. The obvious answer is Marvin Mims Jr., who was an All-Pro kick returner as a rookie. What will be interesting is if the same skill-set that worked for returners under the old rules still applies for the new ones. The bet here is Mims will still be really dangerous back there, but maybe someone else will emerge under the new setup.
One rule change that will have sneaky consequences: Teams can now elevate a practice squad quarterback for game day as many times as they want. Other players can only be elevated three times.
This provides teams flexibility, but also takes away almost any incentive to keep three quarterbacks on the 53-man roster. Most teams don’t anyway, but now the only reason you’d promote a third is if you know you’re going to lose him. And if that player has a chance to be a true No. 2 or get on the field, he might just leave off the practice squad anyway.
Elevating a quarterback will still count as one of two possible practice squad moves each week, so it’s not a free elevation. But it will still probably impact the number teams that carry three guys on their 53.
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