When it comes to the Rocky Mountain region’s teams in the new era of college football’s postseason, the relentlessly optimistic Lloyd Christmas put it best: So you’re telling me there’s a chance.
The College Football Playoff is expanding from four to 12 teams this season — and opening new doors in the process.
Now, a stellar campaign for CU could culminate in a CFP berth, even if they don’t win the Big 12 title in their first year back in the conference.
And for the rest of the region’s FBS schools in the Mountain West — CSU, Wyoming and Air Force — it means there’s finally a tangible path to the playoff with the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion guaranteed a spot.
“The expansion is really the best thing that’s ever happened to Group of 5 schools,” explained The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel, who has covered college football for two decades. “It’s the first time in history that they’ve had a seat at the table. When you go back to the very first year of the (Bowl Championship Series) in 1998 when Tulane went undefeated and went to a lower bowl game, and then through the Utah teams and the TCU teams, all these (Group of 5) teams that won all their games still never had a shot to play for the national championship.
“Cincinnati made the (College Football) Playoff, but that was basically a one-off, and to do that they had to go undefeated two years in a row. And even when they got in, it had to be perfect circumstances.”
Indeed, Cincinnati’s CFP semifinal bid in 2021 — when the now-Big 12 Bearcats were in the American Athletic Conference — is the lone appearance from a Group of 5 school in the decade of the playoff.
Up in Fort Collins, where the Rams hope to take a leap forward in their third season under head coach Jay Norvell, CSU believes the expanded playoff could apply to them. CSU last won the Mountain West in 2002.
“We get overlooked because of the conference we play in, and others do too, but there’s a lot of top (Group of 5) teams that can compete with the big Power 4 teams now,” CSU star wideout Tory Horton said. “We all talk about the Tulane versus USC game (in Tulane’s dramatic 2023 Cotton Bowl win) because those are the games that we’d die to see in the playoffs. So this expansion is a great opportunity for our program, this year and going forward.”
Further north in Laramie, Wyoming has never won the Mountain West, but first-year head coach Jay Sawvel says what the Cowboys did last season in their non-conference slate is a blueprint for how a team from the conference might end up as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion.
“We beat Texas Tech, so we beat a Big 12 team. We beat Appalachian State, so we beat a really good Group of 5 team. And we played a good game (in a loss) at Texas, which was a playoff team,” Sawvel said. “… We didn’t do what needs to be done in conference. But that’s the path that a Mountain West school is going to need to take, whether it’s us, Boise State, CSU, whoever.”
Down in Colorado Springs, longtime AFA head coach Troy Calhoun and the Falcons are less focused on the CFP.
Air Force, which won 29 games over the last three seasons but has never finished atop the Mountain West, is reloading this year with just four returning starters. With roster-building challenges other programs don’t have — recruits need high academics plus a military commitment, NIL deals are prohibited and the program doesn’t take transfers — Calhoun is less bullish on the Falcons’ chances to break into the bracket.
“I absolutely think it’s good for the game, yet that’s just not an item for us,” Calhoun said.
Even if a Mountain West team does have a big season, the conference has some perception-shifting to do. The Mountain West has just one New Year’s Six bowl trip since 2014 compared to six for the AAC (and one CFP spot).
The good news: There have been changes over the last couple of years that could position the Mountain West to become the clear top dog among the Group of 5.
Several of the AAC’s top-tier programs fled for Power 4 pastures, with Cincinnati, Houston and UCF off to Big 12, and SMU going with Cal and Stanford to the ACC. The Mountain West, meanwhile, is completely intact and has added games against Washington State and Oregon State that should bolster its strength of schedule.
“There’s a lot going in their favor that happens to coincide with the first year of this system,” Mandel said.
Of course, the Mountain West landscape remains in flux.
Oregon State and Washington State have retained the Pac-12 brand, but will soon need to either add more schools to its conference or find a new home. The Mountain West, which entered into a scheduling agreement with the two Pac Northwest schools, is likely to be a part of that.
As for this year, the CFP committee’s historical seeding indicates it’s unlikely a second Group of 5 team gets a spot in the playoff outside of the one that’s guaranteed.
“All of these conferences have gotten rid of divisions, so before that, you had this possibility in the past where if there’s an upset in the Big 10 title game and the champion is three-loss Iowa, a second Group of 5 team could finish higher,” Mandel said. “But that’s probably not going to be the case anymore. The Power 4 conferences are all going to have two very highly ranked teams playing in their championship game.”
While the region’s Mountain West programs at least see a door left ajar, in Boulder, the path to the playoff is much more clear: Win the Big 12, and you’re in.
“We plan on being in that situation,” head coach Deion Sanders told 247Sports last December.
CU is entering its second season under Sanders, who led the Buffs to a 4-8 mark in 2023 and has retooled the roster around likely first-round draft picks Shedeur Sanders at cornerback and Travis Hunter at cornerback/receiver.
Mandel, however, is making a more measured projection for CU, citing questions about the Buffs’ ability to protect their QB, their defense and how another roster reload will gel under Coach Prime’s new-look staff.
“I would consider it a success if they make a bowl game,” Mandel said. “I don’t think we’re ready to talk CFP yet.”
2024 College Football Playoff Expansion
What: The CFP is expanding from four teams to 12 teams this season.
Who: The field will feature automatic bids for the five highest-ranked conference champions — most likely the SEC, Big 10, ACC and Big 12 title winners, plus the highest-ranked Group of 5 champ. The seven highest-ranked teams remaining round out the bracket.
Bracketing: The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded 1-4 and get a first-round bye. Seeds 5-12 play each other in the first round, with the higher-seeded teams hosting. The matchups: No. 5 vs. No. 12, No. 6 vs. No. 11, No. 7 vs. No. 10 and No. 8 vs. No. 9.
From there, the four quarterfinals and two semifinals will be played in New Year’s Six bowls on a rotating basis. The national championship site is determined by bids from prospective hosts; this season’s title game is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
2024 Dates: The first round is Dec. 20-21, the quarterfinals (Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl) are Dec. 31-Jan. 1. The semifinals (Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl) are Jan. 9-10. The CFP National Championship is Jan. 20.
