Denver Post sports writer Patrick Saunders with the latest installment of his Rockies Mailbag.
Pose a Rockies- or MLB-related question for the Rockies Mailbag.
Patrick, I moved to Denver a year ago, and this is my first season following the Rockies closely. One glaring deficiency I’ve observed is the complete inability of the Rockies’ pitching staff to strike out batters. They are dead last in baseball by 116 K’s (the same gap between 29th and 12th place). Is the altitude to blame? Pitching to contact in Coors seems like a disastrous idea. And does the organization view this as a problem worth addressing?
— Dan, Denver
Dan, the timing of your question was perfect. Heading into Tuesday night’s game at Atlanta, Rockies pitchers ranked last in the majors with 943 strikeouts, and the Braves ranked first with 1,293.
Lack of strikeout power is a problem that’s vexed the Rockies for a long time, and I suppose somebody could write a dissertation on the subject. I don’t have time for that here, but I’ll toss out a few theories that have been bandied about through the years:
• The Rockies have simply not drafted or developed (or both), enough quality pitchers through the years.
• Aware of the dangers of pitching at altitude, the Rockies concentrated on sinkerball/slider pitchers for a number of years. The idea was that getting hitters to beat the ball into the dirt was the best way to succeed, hence the relative lack of strikeouts.
The Rockies have since moved away from that strategy, as farm director Chris Forbes told The Post last year in our “Rockie Way” project.
“We’re trying to develop more of a contrast approach than five, 10, 12 years ago in this organization, when it was (a lot of) sinker-slider,” Forbes said. “We have to recognize who can pitch at the top of the zone and who has to stay at the corners and the bottom, but ultimately, we’re letting these guys be themselves.”
• The Rockies face a catch-22. History has shown that pitchers who throw heat at the top of the zone and hunt for K’s tend to burn out pitching in Denver, and as their velocity ebbs, they get hit hard.
I was at the game (Sunday), and (Orioles right-hander) Zach Eflin had our hitters off balance. Bud Black pointed out that this illustrates that a curveball can “play” at Coors Field. Is the “common knowledge” that a ball doesn’t break as well here really true? Has it become an excuse for poor pitching? Others seem to be able to come in here and pitch well.
As always, thank you for your great coverage and for your time.
— Frank, Denver
Frank, thanks for reading my Rockies content; it’s very much appreciated. You pose a great question in the wake of what Black said.
There is no question that the ball breaks less in Denver’s high altitude. That’s not based on anecdotal evidence but also on multiple studies over the years, including one in 2019 by FanGraphs. The general consensus is that a curveball typically breaks 2-3 inches less at Coors Field than it does at sea level. Through the years, pitchers have worked on adjusting their approach at Coors, changing their sites (targets) when they pitch at Coors.
Some pitchers have decent success making the adjustment, but many others not so much. Rockies players — both pitchers and hitters — struggle with making adjustments from home games to road games.
As for Black’s comments, he hates when his pitchers use Coors Field as an excuse for a poor performance. He goes out of his way to erase some of the stigma of pitching at Coors. He wants his pitchers to pitch — using their entire arsenal. He understands that his pitchers will get beat up, particularly on hot, dry summer days, but he’s fine with that as long as they outperform the opposition.
With the recent addition to the injured list for Lucas Gilbreath, German Marquez’s quick exit, and Antonio Senzatela not ready for the Rockies rotation, are pitching injuries on the rise? The Dodgers and Orioles have been hit hard, just to name a few teams. What’s with the voodoo from the pitching mound?
— Robert Emmerling, Limon
Robert, thanks for getting back in the Rockies Mailbag mix. As you probably know, the Rockies were actually doing pretty well dodging pitching injuries until last year when Marquez, Senzatela, Gibreath, Daniel Bard and multiple prospects suffered elbow injuries and had to have Tommy John surgery.
Many stories have been written about the rise in pitcher injuries, including one I wrote during spring training. Also, ESPN.com had an excellent story this spring in which several of the major league’s best pitchers weighed in on the “voodoo”, as you call it. The general consensus is that pitchers who go hunting for high velocity all of the time will run into trouble, probably sooner rather than later.
So for the players you mentioned, Senzatela will likely make a couple of starts for Colorado this season, but Marquez and Gilbreath are done.
Is Bud Black coming back next year? Back-to-back 100-loss seasons and three straight years at the bottom of the division doesn’t make for a great resume.
— Scott, Colorado Springs
Scott, I wrote about this topic recently, saying that whether he stays or goes, Blacks has deserved better talent than he’s been given.
But I understand why fans believe that a change needs to be made. The Rockies have already clinched their sixth consecutive losing season and are on pace to lose 102 games. My argument is that no matter who steered the Rockies ship in recent years, the lack of talent, combined with injuries to a number of pitchers, basically guaranteed losing seasons.
With this season being toast, what do you see the lineup and rotation being for next year?
— Mike, Denver
Wow, Mike, you really are Mr. Wait ‘Til Next Year.
A lot can happen between now and the opening day of 2025, but here is my projection, followed by some major caveats that will change things, as early as May.
Lineup
C — Drew Romo
1B — Michael Toglia
2B — Brendan Rodgers
3B — Ryan McMahon
SS — Ezequiel Tover
LF — Jordan Beck
CF — Brenton Doyle
RF — Zac Veen
DH — Kris Bryant
Rotation
LHP — Kyle Freeland
LHP — Austin Gomber
RHP — Cal Quantrill
RHP — German Marquez
RHP — Antonio Senzatela
Now for my caveats:
• I do believe the Rockies will attempt to trade several players during the offseason, including Rodgers, Gomber and Quantrill, all of whom will be entering the final year of their contracts. Trades could drastically alter the roster.
• With many young, talented starters nearing their big-league debuts, I could see the rotation looking much different than the one I projected. No. 1 prospect Chase Dollander will be part of the rotation next season, perhaps very early.
• I have concerns about Marquez’s future. His elbow issues could be a much bigger deal than the Rockies have indicated, and with only one year left on his contract, I don’t know what his future in Colorado will be.
Kris Bryant’s under contract for, sigh, four more seasons. What is the best-case scenario we can see from him? Slashing .250/.332/.381 in 159 games for $78 million over the last three years is maddening.
— Marshall, Parker
Marshall, you forgot to mention that Bryant has hit only 17 home runs in 617 plate appearances with the Rockies over the past three seasons. That’s a 2.8% home run rate that falls below the major league average of 3.1%.
The best-case scenario is that Bryant works hard to strengthen his back during the offseason — I’m told he does not need surgery, but you never know — and becomes a decent designated hitter. There is no place for Bryant on the field because the Rockies have younger players who are much better fielders in the outfield and first base.
If Bryant ever gets healthy enough to play a full season, I could see him hitting .275 with 15-20 homers. Considering that the Rockies still owe Bryant $107 million through 2028, it’s been a disastrous free-agent signing.
Would the Rockies simply eat all of that money and cut Bryant loose? I’ve been told they are not contemplating that right now. But if it does happen down the road, I would not be shocked.
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