Early indications suggest Colorado could have a very good rafting season through spring and into the summer, especially in the northern half of the state.
Predicting seasonal rafting conditions is difficult because factors besides snowpack depths always come into play, such as temperature trends, which affect the rate of runoff, as well as the amount and timing of monsoon moisture in the summer. At the moment, though, things look promising.
River basins in the northern half of the state are showing above-normal snowpack across the board. The Yampa-White River basin in the northwestern corner of the state is at 111% of normal, while the South Platte is 110% and the Colorado River headwaters basin is at 103%. Basins in the southern half of the state are below normal with the Arkansas at 84% and the Gunnison at 79%. The San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan basin is at 67%.
That figure for the Arkansas River basin is misleading from the standpoint of rafting because it includes automated data collection sites that drag down the overall percentage, according to Bob Hamel, executive director of the Arkansas River Outfitters Association.
“The total Arkansas Basin is 84%, but the area of the Arkansas Basin that the raftng industry depends on is way over 100%,” Hamel said. “We have been above 100% for most of the winter, and certainly with (Thursday’s) storm, we are way above.”
Rafting has already begun on the Arkansas and is about to begin in northern Colorado. Rocky Mountain Adventures will begin running the Cache La Poudre west of Fort Collins this weekend.
“The Poudre is at 106%, so we’re really happy with that number,” said co-owner Kyle Johnson. “Things can change quick, but we think this mild weather we are currently experiencing is an excellent way to start our season.”
That’s because temperature spikes in the spring increase the rate of runoff, shortening that part of the season, while mild temperatures stretch it out. The National Weather Service’s 30-day forecast for May is calling for mild temperatures.
“I think it means, hopefully, a nice, slow, metered melt that provides us with really great water levels for a long period of time, and hopefully extends our season into late summer,” Johnson said. “We like to see a nice historical bell curve without really high peak flows — just a nice gradual uptick to seasonal high flows, then a nice metering down to the end of the season. I think we have enough snow in the mountains to provide extended medium to high water flows. And if the weather will stay mild for us, that’s exactly what we’ll see.”
Although the snowpack in the southern half of the state is less than abundant, outfitters there may have a better year than last year according to David Costlow, executive director of the Colorado River Outfitters Association.
“I’m a little more optimistic for the southern half this year than last year, because we got some late snow, and it hasn’t been 90 degrees — hasn’t even hardly been 80 degrees on the Front Range,” Costlow said. “The outlook doesn’t look like it’s going to be super hot anytime soon. Up high, it has been cool, and there’s still snow up there compared to this time last year. We have a pretty good percent of that snowpack waiting to come down, and that will be good for us.”
In fact, significant snow fell in the mountains this week, with more to come at many locations.
Costlow said outfitters around the state are encouraged by the rate of reservations they’re getting.
“They’re telling me bookings are looking good,” Costlow said. “Some are saying they’re really strong.”
